Dane’s St. Louis Cardinals Lineup: Opening Day screw up?

As the 2019 baseball season draws closer and closer, rosters and lineups are beginning to take shape. The St. Louis Cardinals have announced their 2019 Opening Day Lineup, but it doesn’t seem to be configured to be as effective as it could be.

As things stand, the 2019 St. Louis Cardinals projected Opening Day lineup is: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong, and Harrison Bader with Miles Mikolas pitching. Mike Shildt seems to have embraced the new idea of batting your best hitter second in an attempt to get him more plate appearances.

I personally do not like this configuration. I would much rather see Goldschmidt hit 3rd and have more opportunities to drive in runs and create more offense. Should he hit 3rd, there is a much higher chance that Goldy hits with runners on base than in the two hole. The simple math is that a top-of-the-order hitter gets on base significantly more often than a pitcher.

Will there be times when both of those hitters get out? Yeah. But it will happen much less than if one of those two hitters is a pitcher. The idea is that you want your best hitter to have the most opportunities to drive in runs and run up the score.

From a statistics standpoint, this makes sense too. Say you have two hitters with a .380 OBP at the top of the order. There is a 14% chance that they both get on for Goldschmidt. If one of those .380’s is replaced with a .200 OBP pitcher, there is a 7% chance that both runners are on. It is twice as effective to have two high-OBP hitters in front of Goldschmidt.

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Were I in charge of writing the lineup it would go like this: Carpenter, Bader, Goldschmidt, DeJong, Ozuna, Molina, Wong, Fowler. Perhaps a very hot Fowler or Wong could spell Bader in the two spot from time to time, but I would be very confident in this lineup.

The idea of hitting Bader 2nd is that he will get more pitches in the zone because of Goldschmidt behind him. He will see more fastballs and the like as the last thing an opposing pitcher wants is a walk in front of an elite hitter. This will boost Bader’s production (or anyone in the two hole really) and also allow Goldschmidt to drive in more runs.

Paul Goldschmidt was the marquee addition of the offseason, and he should be treated like it. The 3 hole is reserved for the most deadly hitter on the team, which is exactly what Goldschmidt is. By putting Bader in the two hole in front of Goldschmidt, you can maximize his and the St. Louis Cardinals’ ability to score.