St. Louis Cardinals Player Projections: Alex Reyes

The highly touted, fire balling St. Louis Cardinals prospect hasn’t been able to stay healthy long enough to compete in the majors. Is that all that’s holding him back in 2019?

Well, the short answer to that question is that it’s tough to say considering that we haven’t actually seen Alex Reyes pitch much. The limited run he has had has been impressive, but his transition to the St. Louis Cardinals was once again halted by serious injury in 2018.

The question has never been whether Reyes has the arsenal or the talent to compete at the highest level, but whether or not he could stay healthy enough to pitch. Fortunately, the St. Louis Cardinals are built in a way that will put him in a position to succeed.

The reason is that Reyes won’t be forced to slot in as a starter this season. Several pitchers on this St. Louis Cardinals roster have experience balancing spot starts with relief.

While the St. Louis Cardinals have always expressed that they have wanted to develop Reyes as a starter, that might no longer be an absolute any longer. The first priority right now is to get Reyes through a full season, and spending some time in the bullpen might do just that.

ZiPS projections actually disagrees with me on this point, and believes that Reyes will have a short but linear season.

While 64 innings is not what St. Louis Cardinals fans are hoping to see, it might end up being the reality of the situation. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cardinals aren’t exceptionally cautious with Reyes this season. I think 60 innings is probably a decent number to expect, but I don’t think the Cardinals start him out as a starter.

Much like Austin Gomber and Dakota Hudson, I expect Reyes to be a more fluid option for the Redbirds. I don’t think that Cardinals brass has given up on Reyes as a starter, but they should understand at this point that Reyes has to be brought along slowly.

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Starting him out as a reliever would be the easiest way to do this. Obviously, you normally throw more pitches as a starter than as a reliever, and starters will need to rest their arms for a time after a start. This can interrupt a consistent workout routine that he will be doing behind the scenes to condition his body, even with the 5+ innings per start ZiPS projects.

Even if the MLB enacts the three batter minimum for pitchers next season, putting Reyes in the bullpen will tax his arm much less as the Cardinals meticulously and carefully manage his workload on a daily basis. I am not adverse to him starting at some point, but I would like to see him out of the bullpen to start.

Performance wise, it might take some time for him to trust his body again, but if all goes well (which I hope it will), we should begin to see the kind of pitcher Reyes can become as the season winds down.

My Projection: 58.1 IP, 31 G, 6 GS, 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 34 BB, 64 K, 0.6 WAR

Alex Reyes is one of the most exciting prospects the St. Louis Cardinals have had in the 2010’s, and this is a crucial year for him. Hopefully, the Cardinals will do their due diligence, and Reyes’ body finally holds up. If it does, this could be the Alex Reyes breakthrough that will reward the Cardinals for years to come.