St. Louis Cardinals Player Projections: Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty burst on the scene for the St. Louis Cardinals and finished the year in the top 5 in ROY voting. Can he build on that in 2019?

Jack Flaherty wasn’t considered a top-of-the-rotation arm when he was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals all the way back in 2014. He was drafted in the first round but straight out of High School, and still Flaherty was seen as a guy with a ceiling of about a mid-lower rotation arm.

As he rose up the minor league levels for the Cardinals, Flaherty quickly showed that his ceiling was higher than originally thought. At high A Palm Beach in 2016, a league that is normally a large litmus test for players, Flaherty put up a 3.56 ERA with a minuscule 0.5 HR/9 over 23 starts and only got better in 2017. Pitching over 25 starts at AAA and AA, Flaherty had a 2.18 ERA while keeping his homer rate down.

It was really in 2017, the same year he made his debut, that Flaherty began to show that top-of- the-rotation potential. He carried that potential into 2018 where he came in as an unknown and left the season as one of a couple pitchers that I feel like the Cardinals can truly trust going into 2019.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

2018 saw Flaherty start 28 games for the big league club while putting up a 3.34 ERA to go along with a 116 ERA+. This is much more than what I expected from Flaherty coming into the year and he only got as much of an opportunity because of frequent injuries to Adam Wainwright.

The best surprise out of Flaherty in 2018 from my perspective was that he threw so many innings. Between AAA and the MLB, Flaherty threw 181.2 innings. That was about 30 more innings than he had thrown before in the minor leagues. This stands out to me because one, he has never had a serious injury, and health is so important. The other thing is that he is on track to make the jump up to around 200 innings in 2019.

Player	ERA	FIP	G	IP	BB/9	ERA+	WAR
Jack Flaherty	3.62	3.79	32	169.0	3.14	111	2.9

Looking at the ZiPS projections, I would hope that Flaherty would pitch more innings than 169, even though that would be the most he pitched in the majors thus far. The Cardinals seriously need Flaherty to be a rock at the front of the rotation this season. The starting group has a lot of potential, but that potential rests on a lot of ‘ifs.’ If everyone stays healthy, and if they continue to pitch at what level they have been, the Cardinals will arguably have the best rotation in the NL Central.

If people get hurt, or if Flaherty has a sophomore slump, the Cardinals have plenty of inexperienced backup plans, but backup plans wouldn’t have the same potential to be as good.

Based off of Flaherty’s 2018, I am going to have to take the over on the majority of these numbers for 2019. While Flaherty’s 3.86 FIP in 2018 suggests he may have gotten a tad bit lucky, the Cardinals really need Flaherty not to regress in 2019.

My Prediction: 3.22 ERA, 196 IP, 33 GS, 2 CG, 120 ERA+, 3.8 WAR

Flaherty has the makeup and leadership qualities to be this team’s ace and clubhouse leader. 2019 needs to be a step forward for Flaherty or the long-term health of the St. Louis Cardinals’ starting rotation could very well be in jeopardy.

Jack Flaherty burst on the scene for the St. Louis Cardinals and finished the year in the top 5 in ROY voting. Can he build on that in 2019?

Schedule