St. Louis Cardinals Player Projections: Michael Wacha

Before dealing with some injury issues, Michael Wacha had put together a pretty solid 2018 for the St. Louis Cardinals. Will he be able to build upon that in 2019?

Michael Wacha has been dealing with injury issues ever since his stellar 2013 postseason with the St. Louis Cardinals. It hasn’t been constant, but it has been enough to force Wacha to miss a couple of starts and has affected his delivery somewhat.

He made a name for himself in the 2013 postseason with a fastball that had boring downward movement created by the combination of his upright delivery and his long 6’6″ frame. He has slowly changed his delivery in an effort to keep his shoulder healthy, and it has shown in the gradual decrease in fastball movement over the years.

That hasn’t affected Wacha’s ability as a pitcher though, and his solid 3.20 ERA last season is a testament to that. While the injury has affected his performance in 2016 and 2017, he has finally learned to pitch within his own body.

Now the question is whether or not his body will pay him back in kind. He seems to have taken all of the right steps towards a healthy 2019, but certain bodies simply can’t cope no matter what you do.

ZiPS projections see him trending back downwards, and while the 121 innings is a step up from last year, it’s below the number St. Louis Cardinals fans would like to see him at.

An interesting point to note is how high Wacha’s projected FIP is. It might not seem like a big deal in this context, but when you that Wach put up sub 4 FIP every season prior to 2018, including the two where he put up a 4+ ERA. I know FIP doesn’t really show at the end of the day, but I feel Wacha’s will be lower than what these projections show.

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But on to the important numbers. ZiPS is being really tough on Wacha for 2019, predicting that his injury will both impact his performance and keep him out of several games.

This seems kind of harsh considering the corner he turned. His walk rate was a bit higher than it has been in years, but the damage from this was mitigated by the reduction of his H/9 rate to 7.3, a level that he hasn’t been at since his rookie year.

This makes me cautiously optimistic for Wacha. He has been on the St. Louis Cardinals for quite awhile, but he is still just 27. While I don’t think he will fully turn the corner in 2019, this year will hopefully be a preview of what’s to come.

My Prediction: 124 IP, 3.96 ERA, 119 H, 49 BB, 113 K, 1.4 WAR

Wacha’s health has always been up in the air, but 2018 was encouraging despite the shutdown. It looked like the Michael Wacha of old, and a repeat of that return in 2019 could be a difference maker for the St. Louis Cardinals.