St. Louis Cardinals Player Projections: Paul DeJong

Despite having dropoffs in offensive production across the board, there were many facets of Paul DeJong’s 2018 that are signalling towards an improved 2019 for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Paul DeJong’s career with the St. Louis Cardinals has had a very interesting start, yet it might be easier to project how well he plays because of it. From what I can tell, DeJong’s first two seasons were two opposing outliers.

On one hand, DeJong was an offensive machine in 2017, but he struggled a great deal with remaining serviceable on defense. On the other hand, 2018 saw DeJong finishing sixth in the NL in dWAR, yet struggling to put the bat on the ball consistently.

What I see from DeJong is somewhere in the middle of these two outliers on both sides of the ball. I don’t think he will be able to maintain his performance as one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, but he has made drastic improvements.

At the same time, I don’t think he is quite the offensive behemoth that he was in 2017 for the St. Louis Cardinals, but I believe he will be noticeably better than he was last season. Unfortunately, ZiPS projections don’t seem to be with me on this one, and they don’t give DeJong nearly as much credit as I would.

These numbers are basically saying that DeJong will actually hit worse than he did last season, which I just can’t see happening. His 2.5 WAR would make 2019 his worst season, which just seems odd given his trajectory. He made progress in several peripheral categories that makes me believe he will have a more productive offensive year.

DeJong’s descipline is one of the things that has me optimistic about this season, and it goes beyond the simple walk and strikeout rates. DeJong demonstrated far better patience as a hitter, but it did hurt him in some respects.

While the amount he swung at pitches outside of the zone dropped three percentage points, he didn’t swing as much at pitches inside the zone as well. It is difficult to find that point of balance between aggression and patience when you have come up as a free swinger for many years.

DeJong made huge strides in 2018 on that front, but he still needs plenty of work. With Mike Shildt and his staff having full control from the get-go, I believe DeJong will improve his offensive numbers in 2019. However, as DeJong learns the balance he needs at the plate, his walk rate will drop from last season as a result

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DeJong’s defensive projection is very interesting too, because it isn’t dWAR. Instead, it’s Fangraphs defensive metric, which DeJong recorded a 12.3 in 2018. I don’t think he will be the fringe Gold Glove level defender he was in 2019, but I can’t imagine such a monumental dropoff.

Overall, it might not translate into a higher WAR, but I am expecting DeJong to continue to develop his offensive approach while maintaining decent if not above average defense.

My Projection: .252/.349/.487, 133 hits, 24 HR, 6.89% BB%, 26.8% K%, 6 DEF, 3.0 WAR

Overall, it might not translate into a higher WAR, but I am expecting DeJong to continue to develop his offensive approach while maintaining decent if not above average defense at shortstop, which should make him a valuable and crucial contributor for the St. Louis Cardinals.