St. Louis Cardinals: An argument for Yadier Molina batting second

As counter intuitive as it sounds in theory, batting Yadier Molina second in the lineup worked often for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018. With the lineup shifting in 2019, having Molina second in the lineup might still be a legitimate option.

I can guess the first thing that is coming to your mind after reading that. ‘Yadier Molina is just too slow to bat second,’ or something along those lines, right? Well, it’s not quite as clear cut as many would come to believe, especially for the St. Louis Cardinals.

First off, we have to ask the question “why do we want fast players hitting second?” As far as I can tell, the primary reason for this is to beat out double plays at first base, and to provide pressure for your three hitter.

He isn’t quite the walk drawer that Matt Carpenter is, but Yadi is a safe hitter who has good plate vision, and will find ways to get on and get hits without shooting himself in the foot very often. I am sure St. Louis Cardinals fans know this quite well.This translates to Yadi being an effective and versatile hitter, which is why I believe he could help the Cardinals lineup flourish as a two hitter.

A Surprising First Look

Despite being one of the slowest players in the league, the rate at which Yadi was not nearly as high as one might imagine. It is above average, but his modest rate in comparison to what one might expect demonstrates speed isn’t everything here.

Taking a selection of some of the second hole hitters around the league, you can see that in many cases, the speed of a batter is not directly correlated to how often they ground into double plays.

Speed/DP correlation	GDP%	Sprint Speed (ft/s)
Yadier Molina	3.01%	22.9
Buster Posey	3.87%	24.9
Rhys Hoskins	1.07%	26.3
Adam Jones	2.85%	26.7
Alex Bregman	1.37%	27.8
Andrew Benintendi	1.27%	27.8
Wil Myers	3.73%	28.1
Jose Altuve	3.86%	28.2
Matt Chapman	2.61%	28.3
Tommy Pham	2.92%	28.6
Starling Marte	3.25%	28.6

Speed certainly plays its part, but there are a variety of other factors that play into how often a hitter bats into a double play. One factor that is somewhat obvious is how often a player actually hit ground balls. While Yadi is normally one to hit a decent amount of ground balls as more of a contact hitter, that trend abruptly reversed in the past two seasons.

Yadi’s 2016 GB% was 48.4%, which is a number that is undesirable for a two hitter when paired with his lack of speed. However, 2017 saw that number drop all the way down to 42.2%, and he brought it down even further in 2018. Molina’s ground ball rate of 38.9% in 2018 was 44th in the league.

Many of the second hitters who are elite at avoiding grounding into double plays keep their ground balls down. Hoskins finished 2018 with the second lowest rate at just 29.1%, while Bregman came in at 16th with a 34.6% mark. Benintendi actually saw himself fall behind Molina in ground ball rate at 40.8%, but this is where you see the impact of Yadi’s lack of speed.

Yadi’s Talents: 2018 and Beyond

Another thing to consider is how hard one hits the ball. Logic dictates that unless its a swinging bunt, soft hit balls are easier to turn into double plays than ones that are hit hard. This season, Molina had the 20th highest hard hit % and the 25th lowest soft hit % in the league at 44.4% and 13.3% respectively.

What’s even more impressive are those numbers when Yadi is hitting out of the two hole. In just under 200 PA’s in the two spot in 2018, his hard hit % rises to 45.5%, and his soft hit % drops all the way down to an impressive 9.0%. Consequently, his ground ball rate was also lower out of the two spot in 2018 at 34.8%.

You might argue that these impressive outliers are just that: outliers. Some of them have gradually trended towards his 2018 marks over several seasons, but some jumps seem far too uncharacteristic to be sustainable. I agree that many of these peripheral stats may change, but what has remained constant for over 10 years is that Yadier Molina is a reliable and trustworthy hitter for the St. Louis Cardinals.

What do I mean by ‘trustworthy’ you might ask? Well, think about this for a moment. Imagine that you’re in a the bottom of the ninth, with a man on second in a tie game. In that situation, when the game is on the line, when you want a hitter that won’t shoot himself in the foot, and when you need a hitter to come through, who on the St. Louis Cardinals would you turn to right now?

Some might go with Matt Carpenter, who had a torrid end of 2018 on his way to potential MVP consideration, but I personally would want Yadier Molina at the plate with the game on the line. He might not walk a lot, but he has been a smart hitter who doesn’t strike out often, and won’t make the mistakes that will leave you banging your head against the wall. His consistent presence as an adored member of the lineup for over a decade is a testament to that.

The Marp Effect

Speaking of Matt Carpenter, his presence as a lead off hitter is another crucial part of this equation. Carpenter does get on base often, but him producing numbers similar to this season would actually mitigate some of the logical disadvantages that comes with Molina hitting behind the lead off.

Carpenter is a lead off hitter that hits homers, different from the traditional archetype. This is important because home runs clear the bases in front of the next batter, meaning the batter behind him will have more opportunities than most to hit with the bases empty.

Among batters with 100 or more PA’s in the leadoff spot, Carpenter is 3rd in hard hit %, 1st in fly ball %, and 6th in HR/FB, which translates to Carpenter being the most effective power lead off hitter in 2018. If you take Carpenter’s home runs out of the picture, his OBP is just .339. This does come a surprise considering Marp drew over 100 walks, but there is some merit to it in this argument.