St. Louis Cardinals: What would a Paul Goldschmidt extension look like?

With St. Louis Cardinals’ new first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, being a free agent this coming offseason, an extension in St. Louis is something that many fans want to see already. What would a new deal look like with the first baseman?

According to the presser the St. Louis Cardinals had to introduce Paul Goldschmidt, he is focused completely on the upcoming season, not on extension talks.

Can you blame him? After breaking into the league in 2011, he has played only for the Diamondbacks, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t want to explore the market. At the time of the presser, it was his first week in his new city, so it’s understandable that he wants some time to see if he fits here, and he may even want to cash in during free agency.

Goldschmidt has proved himself to be an incredibly team focused player who is a model servant leader. The Cardinals no doubt knew this when they were trying to trade for him earlier in the offseason, but he is a model St. Louis Cardinal as many have said before. He is humble, and is payed as such. Goldy signed a very team friendly 6 year, $44.5M deal in 2013 as a 26 year old with Arizona.

Over the first 5 years of that deal, Goldy has made $30.5M and has been worth 29.2 WAR. From Fangraphs‘ projection system converting WAR to what that player would’ve made in free agency, he should’ve been payed north of $213M over those 6 years. So yeah, he should’ve been making a whole lot more money over that time. Spotrac.com has that number at $164M, but it is safe to say it’s somewhere in between.

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In 2019, Goldschmidt is scheduled to make just $14.5M despite being projected to be a 4.2 WAR player. While I believe that projection is a little light, he would still be worth around $34M. How could this benefit the Cardinals?

The Cardinals are smart to give Goldschmidt some space to adjust to life in St. Louis, and hopefully he loves it. At some point during the season, it may be smart to approach him about maybe giving him a raise this year and signing him long term. I don’t like the idea of us having to duke it out in free agency for him.

Via Spotrac.com, using a linear decline in production, they offer that a 4 year extension would be worth about $110M for Goldy. If you tack on a 5th year and give him a raise this year, I would say an extension would run around $150M. If you wait until the beginning of June and go to Goldy and offer him 5yrs/$150M I would think he would at least very strongly consider it.

Yes, that deal is a little more expensive than some projections will say. But as happens often with players over 30, the team that signs them has to pay for past production as well to entice them to sign, and I think Goldschmidt would be worth an extension of that size and length.