St. Louis Cardinals: Papa Michael Wacha is an unlikely ace

With injuries affecting the starting rotation of the St. Louis Cardinals, a surprising ace has risen to the top.

Michael Wacha was a one-time, postseason MVP for the St. Louis Cardinals in the early 2000s. Then he became a mediocre pitcher. So much so that I argued for him to be traded this offseason and/or as this season’s trade deadline approaches.

I am gladly eating crow to date this season on my requests regarding Michael Wacha. At this point, I hope the St. Louis Cardinals hold onto this gem unless a major offer arrives (think: Manny Machado).

Why? Wacha is pitching below his usual numbers. A career 3.74 ERA pitcher is now pitching a 2.71 ERA so far this season. And today’s game isn’t even considered in that number.

Today, through eight innings (as of the time of this writing), Wacha has yet to allow a run (or hit) to the Pirates. His stuff looks good and even the one inning that gave him some walk problems had him slamming the door shut with his material. The St. Louis Cardinals have a gem on their hands. Period.

And to his credit, as well, Wacha appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses. In his first appearance in 2018, Wacha pitched only 4.2 innings allowing four earned runs on five hits. This was the Wacha that I worried about.

Since that first game, Wacha has yet to allow anymore than two runs in a game except for the one outlier on April 12 when he faced the Reds and allowed three runs.

Here’s a look at his game log for this season:

2018 Pitching Game Log
Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)	Entered	Exited
1	122	2	Mar 31	STL	@	NYM	L,2-6	GS-5	L(0-1)	99	4.2	5	4	4	2	2	2	1	7.71	22	95	52	17	3	6	11	7	0	0	38			0	0	0	19	2	0	0	0	0	0	.69	-0.212	-1.73	1.70	8.00	1b start tie	5b 1– 2 out d3
2	123	8	Apr 7	STL		ARI	W,5-3	GS-5	W(1-1)	6	5.0	4	2	2	5	5	0	0	5.59	23	89	48	14	7	8	5	2	0	0	51			0	0	0	17	1	0	0	1	0	0	1.24	0.027	0.53	15.85	36.00	1t start tie	5t 3 out a3
3	124	13	Apr 12	STL	@	CIN	W,13-4	GS-5	W(2-1)	4	5.0	5	4	3	3	5	0	0	5.52	23	93	57	18	11	7	8	6	1	0	45			1	0	0	20	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.35	-0.167	-1.42	14.45	33.00	1b start a 2	5b 3 out tie
4	125	19	Apr 20	STL		CIN	W,4-2	GS-7	W(3-1)	7	6.2	6	1	1	1	3	0	0	4.22	25	92	60	16	8	10	11	5	1	0	60			0	0	0	23	0	0	0	1	1	0	.83	0.217	2.11	18.80	38.00	1t start tie	7t 12- 2 out a3
5	126	23	Apr 25	STL		NYM	W,9-1	GS-6	W(4-1)	4	6.0	5	1	1	1	8	0	0	3.62	24	98	64	15	17	6	9	8	0	0	65			0	0	0	23	0	0	0	0	0	0	.90	0.110	2.04	27.90	51.00	1t start tie	6t 3 out a8
May	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc	IR	IS	SB	CS	PO	AB	2B	3B	IBB	GDP	SF	ROE	aLI	WPA	RE24	DFS(DK)	DFS(FD)	Entered	Exited
6	127	28	May 1	STL		CHW	W,3-2	GS-5		5	5.0	5	2	2	3	3	0	0	3.62	23	96	54	11	7	6	11	5	2	0	49			2	0	0	20	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.19	0.013	0.53	8.45	18.00	1t start tie	5t 3 out d1
7	128	32	May 6	STL		CHC	W,4-3	GS-6		4	5.1	6	2	1	3	5	1	0	3.35	23	96	59	18	12	6	9	3	1	0	52			0	0	0	19	1	0	0	1	1	0	1.00	0.006	0.36	14.60	28.00	1t start tie	6t -2- 1 out d1
8	129	37	May 12	STL	@	SDP	L,1-2	GS-6		5	6.0	3	1	1	1	5	0	0	3.09	22	89	52	16	8	8	8	4	1	0	66			1	0	0	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	.92	0.192	1.91	19.10	30.00	1b start tie	6b 3 out tie
9	130	42	May 18	STL		PHI	W,12-4	GS-6	W(5-1)	5	6.0	5	2	2	2	8	0	0	3.08	25	101	65	15	11	8	7	3	2	0	60			0	0	0	23	1	0	0	0	0	0	.78	0.170	1.04	25.30	48.00	1t start tie	6t 3 out a4
10	131	47	May 23	STL		KCR	L,2-5	GS-7		4	6.2	4	2	1	0	6	1	0	2.88	24	102	70	15	14	7	11	6	2	0	66			0	0	0	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	.96	0.140	1.31	22.60	35.00	1t start tie	7t 1– 2 out tie
11	132	52	May 29	STL	@	MIL	W,6-1	GS-7	W(6-1)	5	6.2	2	1	1	4	3	0	0	2.71	26	102	60	18	7	10	9	6	0	0	65			0	0	0	21	0	0	0	1	0	1	.63	0.215	3.14	19.40	38.00	1b start tie	7b 1-3 2 out a5
							8-3		W-L:6-1	4.9	63.0	50	22	19	25	53	4	1	2.71	260	1053	61%	16%	10%	0.83		30%	6%	0	56		—%	4	0	0	228	7	0	0	4	3	1	.95	0.711	9.84	188.15	363.00

Notice the growing innings and Wacha’s ability to pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals. Also notice the number of strikeouts; while not the stuff of an ace, his material is more important than the K-count.

More from Redbird Rants

Here’s the skinny on that: Wacha has mastered his off-speed material this season. In the past, Wacha battled injuries that seemed to make his offspeed pitches weak and thus he relied more heavily on his fastball to detrimental outcomes.

Through 2017, Wacha used his fastball in the neighborhood of 52-65 percent of the time. In 2018, this number has dropped to a percentage of 44.7.

Additionally, through 2017, Wacha relied on his curveball in the neighborhood of 5-11 percent of the time. 2018 is seeing a percentage of 15.5.

Staying with the offspeed material, Wacha pitched his changeup in the neighborhood of 16-27 percent of the time through 2017. This season he is relying on the changeup 21.9 percent of the time.

The reliance now on the offspeed material is what is making him so deadly. Not for strikeouts but for fooling batters into soft contact that leads to easy(ier) outs. So while not necessarily an ace, Wacha has been precisely what the St. Louis Cardinals have needed.

Next: The shift hurts

As of the time of publishing, Wacha is around 95 pitches and has one of those things going that I won’t jinx. At the same time, I refuse to turn the tv off or walk away. Stay tuned. Go St. Louis Cardinals!

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