St. Louis Cardinals: Half a loaf means 2018 change

When a team’s intent to contend enters a new baseball season, it needs to have a good deal of certainty about the prospects of most of its lineup. In the case of the 2018 St. Louis Cardinals, that is simply not right now, but perhaps after the offseason it will be.

What do I mean by “certainty,” given that nothing, especially in baseball, is truly certain? For sake of this argument, at least for next year’s edition of the St. Louis Cardinals, let’s go with this:

A  “certain” player is one who is either (A) a proven commodity at the major-league level over a reasonable period of time, (B) a player who’s so consistently progressed in recent past that we can credibly pencil them in for a starting spot; or (C) a truly can’t miss prospect.

By this test, we have under (A), three players (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler and Yadier Molina), under (B) one player (Kolten Wong) and under (C), zero players.

That means that if you give Wong the benefit of the doubt, and assume Carpenter remains at first base, there are four positions — third base, shortstop, and two of three outfield positions — at which a lack of certainty remains.

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Let’s take the discussion from least to most uncertain:

*LF: Tommy Pham.  Let’s face it. The guy has been absolutely phenomenal. Right now he’s close to a .300/.400/.500 guy with his BA/OBP/SLG as the Cards have.

He has knockout punch stuff, and he has an outside shot at a 20/20 HR/SB year, too.

However, this is a guy who started the season in the minors. In two previous part-time campaigns, he’s had a good one (124 OPS+) two years ago, and a flat average one last year. Great now, but no guarantee. Even with eye issues solved, the predictive value is still modest.

3B: Jedd Gyorko. I would not have put this fine player, whose defense has been a wonderful surprise, on this list two months ago, but for whatever reasons are behind the supposed fatigue, he has fallen flat at the plate now for a couple months. This is not a career trend, either, as his monthly stats over his now over 2,000 major league at bats haven’t varied wildly.

Gyorko, with his 30 dingers last year, was one of the few reasons we even had a shot at the 2016 playoffs (until we didn’t). This year, after a torrid April and decent May and June, he’s struggled almost beyond recognition. We hope he bounced back, but predicting a consistent Jedd for next year? Not so much.

SS: Paul DeJong. Incredible. Amazing. Fun. 269 plate appearances. Possible? Sure. Probable. Perhaps. Certain. See: Aledmys Diaz, circa 2016, then come talk to me.

RF: Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk: Different reasons but similar conclusions. Piscotty looked as steady as steady can be last year, then fell off the production wagon this year, whether for mechanical or emotional reasons, or some combo.

Grichuk, while teasing us with some more steady production since the All-Star break, will have to show us a far more sustained output to be considered an every day pencil-in. His susceptibility to repeated sins of the past, most notably the inability to lay off outside and down breaking balls (think Rick Ankiel) or high fastballs, creeps in at the most inopportune times.

On the bench: Greg Garcia is about as predictable a light-but-good-pinch hitting utility guy as one can be. Luke Voit has pop, but we know nothing of his ability to sustain at this level. Carson Kelly is as close to the can’t-miss prospect described above, but with much of that potential wrapped up in his glove.

The end of this season, playoffs or not, provides a glimpse into management’s ability to weigh the certainty factor with all these guys, and to see which of those down below, Diaz included, will be the uncertain new contributors of 2018. But beware: there’s little time and limited at bats to create massively more knowledge.

Next: Piscotty eyes return

Any success that the 2017 team has is being carried on the backs of several players, Pham and DeJong, for whom major-league, high-level performance is a new thing. To count on those players at that level for next year is unfair to both them and the team. That’s why any fair prediction of significant 2018 success must include either trades or free agent signings.