St. Louis Cardinals: Offensive struggles loom large for several regulars

A prolific offense has led the St. Louis Cardinals to strong fortunes in years past, but that doesn’t look to be the case so far in 2017.

Last season, St. Louis came into June averaging around 5.5 runs per game. In their last 11 games, the St. Louis Cardinals have only scored above that clip once.

Following Saturday’s loss against a Chicago Cubs team that lost six straight prior to the series, the St. Louis Cardinals are now under .500 for the deepest time into a season in the Mike Matheny era. The bullpen has struggled and fundamentals have proved sub-par, yet the bats are arguably the most puzzling concern at large as St. Louis wraps up their ninth week of the season.

In fact, St. Louis’ starting eight position players from Opening Night have combined for a 3.1 offensive WAR so far this season, which could pace considerably lower than the 16.6 mark from last year’s starting eight. Checking in on each of these hitters, offensive struggles are evident almost everywhere from top to bottom.

Let’s kick off this struggle analysis by looking through the lineup.

1. Dexter Fowler– CF

2017 ESPN projection: .263 AVG, 93 runs, 16 HR, 49 RBIs

2017 stats: .228 AVG, 30 runs, 8 HR, 20 RBIs

Fowler has picked up his game admirably of late, hitting .296 with three solo home runs this past week. His .767 OPS is actually respectable given a batting average that hovered around the Mendoza line until a few weeks ago. However, Fowler is striking out in nearly a quarter of his at-bats and may have a hard time becoming a 20-20 player with just a pair of stolen bases so far.

2.  Aledmys Diaz– SS

2017 ESPN projection: .281 AVG, 68 runs, 15 HR, 63 RBIs

2017 stats: .255 AVG, 20 runs, 5 HR, 14 RBIs

The sophomore slump has been real on a week-to-week basis. Diaz kicked off the Cardinals’ first homestand in strong fashion that included a multi-home run game, but hasn’t recorded any RBIs since May 10.

Diaz is striking out at about the same rate as last season and has only walked ten times this season. Diaz has dropped all the way down to eighth in the order in recent games, and it may take a strong week of at-bats to move back higher in the lineup regularly.

3. Matt Carpenter– 1B

2017 ESPN projection: .268 AVG, 96 runs, 25 HR, 93 RBIs

2017 stats: .216 AVG, 24 runs, 9 HR, 27 RBIs

Nearing the midst of his sixth full season with the Cardinals, Carpenter has proven to be a streaky hitter time after time. But he hasn’t really found the hot-end of this streak yet, aside from the first week of May where he collected nine walks, four home runs, and six RBIs.

Carpenter has only three hits in his last twenty-five at-bats, which included seven strikeouts, and has not really found a niche hitting third in the order as quickly as some may have expected. He is a good bounce-back candidate, but to what extent or how soon is unknown.

4. Jhonny Peralta– 3B

2017 ESPN projection: .265 AVG, 51 runs, 13 HR, 51 RBIs

2017 stats: .189 AVG, 3 runs

If you are reading this article, you have just as many RBIs as Peralta has since Opening Night. And that doesn’t even begin to tell the story of the 35-year-old’s struggles.

You would also have just as many extra-base hits as Peralta, who has just nine singles this year. In all fairness, Peralta missed more than a month on the disabled list. But his dramatic falloff makes it difficult to understand how he still cracks the starting lineup, and it might not be too much longer in the final season of his four-year contract.

5. Yadier Molina– C

2017 ESPN projection: .287 AVG, 45 runs, 7 HR, 52 RBIs

2017 stats: .250 AVG, 18 runs, 6 HR, 23 RBIs

After signing a three-year, $60-million contract extension before Opening Night, Molina has been about average offensively and not much more. He might crack the double-digit home run plateau for the first time in four years with six already through early June.

That sais, his .222 RISP batting average and .202 clip with two strikes represents some difficulties he has faced in coming up in the clutch. He has only grounded into three double plays this season, much lower than his career averages.