St. Louis Cardinals: Backup- Harrison Bader or Tommy Pham?

The St. Louis Cardinals have made some decisions this offseason and will have other decisions to make come spring training. One of these will be who makes the best outfield backup.

The St. Louis Cardinals signing of Dexter Fowler suggests that the 2017 outfield is set: Randal Grichuk, Fowler, and Stephen Piscotty. This leaves a question for spring training– who will serve as the backup?

Yesterday I penned a piece examining Harrison Bader and comparing him to Oscar Taveras. I promised that I would pen a piece today examining Bader to Tommy Pham. So here it is.

Let me do a little recap of yesterday’s piece for you here. In short, I love Harrison Bader but question whether it would be better for him to serve in 2017 in Memphis first to get additional everyday play and then climb to the majors when most needed (e.g. injury, trade, or roster expansion).

In yesterday’s article, I showed how Bader’s statistics are similar to those of Taveras save some of the splendor and splash. That said, Taveras carried stronger promise (not discrediting Bader). Moreover, Taveras built a longer career in the minors which could suggest that Bader needs a touch more development.

One more quick review. Let’s take a look/review at Bader’s numbers:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2015	21	2 Teams	A-A-	61	235	40	73	13	2	11	32	17	6	15	49	.311	.368	.523	.892
2015	21	State College	A-	7	29	6	11	2	0	2	4	2	0	0	5	.379	.400	.655	1.055
2015	21	Peoria	A	54	206	34	62	11	2	9	28	15	6	15	44	.301	.364	.505	.869
2016	22	2 Teams	AA-AAA	131	465	70	124	19	5	19	58	13	13	36	131	.267	.335	.452	.786
2016	22	Springfield	AA	82	318	48	90	12	4	16	41	11	10	25	93	.283	.351	.497	.848
2016	22	Memphis	AAA	49	147	22	34	7	1	3	17	2	3	11	38	.231	.298	.354	.652
All Levels (2 Seasons)		192	700	110	197	32	7	30	90	30	19	51	180	.281	.346	.476	.822

…and Bader’s defensive numbers:

Year	Age	Lev		G	Inn	Ch	PO	A	E	DP	Fld%	RF/9	RF/G
2015	21	A-A-	LF	11	93.0	20	16	4	0	2	1.000	1.94	1.82
2015	21	A-A-	RF	8	64.0	14	13	1	0	0	1.000	1.97	1.75
2015	21	A-	LF	4	26.0	6	6	0	0	0	1.000	2.08	1.50
2015	21	A-	RF	3	26.0	6	5	1	0	0	1.000	2.08	2.00
2015	21	A	CF	42	365.1	142	137	2	3	1	.979	3.42	3.31
2015	21	A	LF	7	67.0	14	10	4	0	2	1.000	1.88	2.00
2015	21	A	RF	5	38.0	8	8	0	0	0	1.000	1.89	1.60
2016	22	AA-AAA	CF	103	841.0	249	236	10	3	2	.988	2.63	2.39
2016	22	AA-AAA	OF	125	992.1	288	274	10	4	2	.986	2.58	2.27
2016	22	AAA-AA	RF	9	54.1	11	11	0	0	0	1.000	1.82	1.22
2016	22	AA	CF	77	645.0	189	181	6	2	2	.989	2.61	2.43
2016	22	AA	OF	81	682.0	197	189	6	2	2	.990	2.57	2.41
2016	22	AA	RF	4	37.0	8	8	0	0	0	1.000	1.95	2.00
2016	22	AAA	CF	26	196.0	60	55	4	1	0	.983	2.71	2.27
2016	22	AAA	LF	16	97.0	28	27	0	1	0	.964	2.51	1.69
2016	22	AAA	OF	44	310.1	91	85	4	2	0	.978	2.58	2.02
2016	22	AAA	RF	5	17.1	3	3	0	0	0	1.000	1.56	0.60
All Levels (2 Seasons)		CF	145	1206.1	391	373	12	6	3	.985	2.87	2.66
All Levels (2 Seasons)		LF	27	190.0	48	43	4	1	2	.979	2.23	1.74
All Levels (1 Season)		OF	125	992.1	288	274	10	4	2	.986	2.58	2.27
All Levels (2 Seasons)		RF	17	118.1	25	24	1	0	0	1.000	1.90	1.47

Okay then, to the matter at hand. Let’s do some comparison to Pham to see if Harrison would be a better solution as backup than Pham who is currently slated to be the 2017 outfield support piece.

Offensively, Pham has compiled three years of MLB experience appearing in 314 at-bats and posting a slash line of .245/.333/.455. While it isn’t comparing apples-to-apples necessarily, if we compare Pham’s three MLB seasons’ numbers to Bader’s AAA numbers, Pham has Harrison bested in all three slash fields.

How about defense? Have a look at Pham’s chart:

Year	Age	Pos	G	Inn	Ch	PO	A	DP	Fld%	RF/9	RF/G
2014	26	LF	2	3.0	2	2	0	0	1.000	6.00	1.00
2014	26	OF	2	4.0	2	2	0	0	1.000	4.50	1.00
2014	26	RF	1	1.0	0	0	0	0		0.00	0.00
2015	27	OF	44	328.1	65	63	2	1	1.000	1.78	1.48
2015	27	CF	33	242.2	54	52	2	1	1.000	2.00	1.64
2015	27	LF	18	74.2	10	10	0	0	1.000	1.21	0.56
2015	27	RF	3	11.0	1	1	0	0	1.000	0.82	0.33
2016	28	OF	66	377.2	73	71	2	1	1.000	1.74	1.11
2016	28	CF	34	239.0	52	50	2	1	1.000	1.96	1.53
2016	28	LF	30	123.2	18	18	0	0	1.000	1.31	0.60
2016	28	RF	5	15.0	3	3	0	0	1.000	1.80	0.60
	3 Seasons	OF	112	710.0	140	136	4	2	1.000	1.77	1.25
	2 Seasons	CF	67	481.2	106	102	4	2	1.000	1.98	1.58
	3 Seasons	LF	50	201.1	30	30	0	0	1.000	1.34	0.60
	3 Seasons	RF	9	27.0	4	4	0	0	1.000	1.33	0.44
	3 Seasons	TOT	112	710.0	140	136	4	2	1.000	1.77	1.25

This is where things start to fall apart for Pham. Again, while it isn’t a fair apples-to-apples comparison, Pham’s RF/9 numbers pale to those of Bader’s. In CF, Pham owns the 1.98 RF/9 where Bader (see charts above) owns a 2.87 RF/9. Likewise, LF and RF show similar weaknesses when compared to Bader.

Looking at speed, something that Bader holds as a shining glimmer for his future, his thirty swiped bases in only two seasons far out-shines Pham’s miserable four bases stolen in three seasons. The St. Louis Cardinals far and wide need speed and it would appear that Bader has Pham bested here.

Pham is under team control until 2022 and Bader has yet to start his clock thanks to his not yet making his MLB debut. Under these notions, Pham is arbitration-eligible in 2019. These items, in combination with his MLB experience, could make him of interest to another team should he improve his numbers. This might contribute to his serving as backup until a trade can be built.

In the same vein, Bader’s lacking minor league experience could well contribute to his NOT serving as the backup in 2017. Not until a trade or injury might require his service, that is.

Let’s sum it up. Offensively speaking, Pham is a better option (today) over Bader; Pham 1, Bader 0. In terms of defense, Bader is a better option (today) than Pham; all tied at 1. In terms of speed, Bader is a better option (today) than Pham; Bader 2, Pham 1.