St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk is the new Matt Holliday

The St. Louis Cardinals have officially declined Matt Holliday’s 2017 option and have officially relocated Randal Grichuk.

Matt Holliday gave so much to these St. Louis Cardinals.  He was amazing.  Well, his offense was amazing.  His defense wasn’t horrible (not like Chris Duncan‘s humorous left field) but his range and effectiveness made it very important to have an outstanding center fielder.

As Holliday started to fade in left field, Mozeliak grabbed two players from the Angels to back-fill the center spot: Peter Bourjos and Randal GrichukJon Jay was on the team at the time of this trade but his defense in center was not necessarily strong enough to assist with Holliday’s lacking range.

Bourjos was brought thanks to his speed and his promise to fill the gap in center.  While Bourjos had speed, his defense didn’t show to be any stronger in center than that of Jay.  To add insult to injury, neither Jay nor Bourjos were able to get their bats functional at the plate.

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This was when Randal Grichuk made his move.  What was an accessory piece to the Bourjos trade was quickly becoming the gem of the trade.  Grichuk made a name for himself in spring training and even in Memphis such that he found his way to the St. Louis Cardinals and found his way into playing center field on a daily basis.

Let’s take a look at his defensive numbers with the St. Louis Cardinals:

YearAgeTmLgLevAffGInnChPOAEDPFld%
201422MemphisPCLAAASTLCF36296.170682001.000
201422MemphisPCLAAASTLLF53438.18071720.975
201422MemphisPCLAAASTLRF1285.027270001.000
201422STLNLMLBSTLCF51817010.944
201422STLNLMLBSTLLF5770001.000
201422STLNLMLBSTLRF283330210.970
201523STLNLMLBSTLCF37
201523STLNLMLBSTLLF49
201523STLNLMLBSTLOF85719.2156151231.981
201523STLNLMLBSTLRF13
201624MemphisPCLAAASTLCF17131.131301001.000
201624MemphisPCLAAASTLOF17131.131301001.000
201624STLNLMLBSTLCF115949.12292218011.000
201624STLNLMLBSTLLF427.0770001.000
201624STLNLMLBSTLOF119994.1241232811.996
201624STLNLMLBSTLRF318.054010.800
MLB (3 seasons)MLBCF157949.1247238811
MLB (3 seasons)MLBLF5827.01414000
MLB (2 seasons)MLBOF2041714.03973831042.990
MLB (3 seasons)MLBRF4418.03834220
Minors (6 seasons)MinorsCF1281070.02852731021.993
Minors (3 seasons)MinorsLF99842.2133121930.977
Minors (6 seasons)MinorsRF3082665.164560926109.984

Notice that he has notched experience at all of the outfield spots.  While his sample size is small for left field, he has held well at .977 fielding percentage in the minors at left.  That said, Memphis has a wide left field and this makes playing this spot difficult unless the center fielder can cover a great deal of ground.  This will stand true in St. Louis too.

The Cardinals have announced that Grichuk will replace the outgoing Holliday in left field in 2017 thus opening the door for a new center fielder.  Before diving further, let’s compare Grichuk and Holliday to see if this is an improvement.

Grichuk:

YearTmAgePosGInnChPOAEDPFld%Rtot
2014STL22CF529.01817010.9442
2014STL22LF531.0770001.0002
2015STL23LF49344.16360120.9682
2015STL23CF37282.072711011.0003
2016STL24CF115949.12292218011.0000
2016STL24LF427.0770001.0001
3 SeasonsCF1571260.1319309912.9975
3 SeasonsLF58402.17774120.9744
3 SeasonsTOT2391932.14554371262.9878

Grichuk holds an Rtot (runs above pr below average a player is worth based on the number of plays made) of four when playing in left field and a five when playing in center.

Holliday:

YearTmLgAgePosGInnChPOAEDPFld%Rtot
2009STLNL29LF62540.28886110.9890
2010STLNL30LF1551341.2272261830.989-0
2011STLNL31LF115990.2203196430.985-1
2012STLNL32LF1521312.2235226631.987-13
2013STLNL33LF1361150.1215212211.9958
2014STLNL34LF1501280.2252240571.9720
2015STLNL35LF64495.185850001.000-2
2016STLNL36LF84644.01131112001.000-7
13 SeasonsLF169814482.229472832674812.984-31
13 SeasonsTOT170814544.130222897774817.984-30

Holliday holds an Rtot of negative thirty-one over his thirteen-season career in left field.  When Holliday joined the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009 he held the average for two seasons in left.  His best season was in 2013 when he ranked at eight points above the average that season in left.

In short, Grichuk will be a defensive improvement over Holliday in left.  How about offense?  Let’s compare (which might not be a fair comparison).  These are Grichuk’s numbers:

YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
201422STL471101127613802531.245.278.400.678
201523STL103323498923717474222110.276.329.548.877
201624STL1324466610729324685428141.240.289.480.769
3 Yrs2828791262235811441239855282.254.302.495.797
162 Game Avg.1625057212833625715532162.254.302.495.797

And these are Holliday’s numbers:

YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
200929STL6323542831621355242643.353.419.6041.023
2010 ★30STL1585969518645128103956993.312.390.532.922
2011 ★31STL124446831323602275216093.296.388.525.912
2012 ★32STL15759995177362271024475132.295.379.497.877
201333STL1415201031563112294616986.300.389.490.879
201434STL1565748315637020904174100.272.370.441.811
2015 ★35STL732292464161435213949.279.394.410.804
201636STL11038248942012062003571.246.322.461.782
13 Yrs1773658311041995448322951153107377441230.303.382.515.897
162 Game Avg.1626011011824132710510368112.303.382.515.897
STL (8 yrs)9823581573104823781566162917447667.293.380.494.874

Fair comparison?  Holliday has played longer and thus has a larger sample size but he has been weakened of late thanks to age and injury.  On the opposite side of things, the younger Grichuk joined the St. Louis Cardinals around .240 BA, climbed to around .270, and regressed in 2016 back around .240.  If Grichuk can regain the .270s then he can well replace Holliday at the plate.

I feel confident that Grichuk can grow accordingly as needed for the St. Louis Cardinals.  I feel that his replacing Holliday will work extremely well in the field and that he can grow at the plate.  He is not the same as the younger Holliday but is certainly better than the Holliday of late.

Next: Where to play Matt Carpenter

I am a huge Matt Holliday fan and will hate to see him go.  Maybe he won’t be going anywhere but he is likely headed to the American League to serve as a designated hitter.  If this is his future, then the St. Louis Cardinals are simply not the right place for this future.

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