St. Louis Cardinals: Examining Possible Postseason Scenarios

Coming into their final regular season series of 2016, the St. Louis Cardinals could take one of the most obscure paths to postseason in recent baseball history.

The St. Louis Cardinals received a favorable break yesterday when Yadier Molina recorded a walkoff hit on a play that could have been challenged for a ground-rule double, thus return the winning run to third base.

A moment that ultimately finds the Cardinals within one game of the second National League Wild Card spot and keeps the team’s mission for a sixth straight postseason birth alive.

With three home games left on schedule between the recently eliminated Pittsburgh Pirates, this series could be more of a challenge than the Cardinals expected. Carlos Martinez, who leads the team with a 5.5 WAR, is scheduled to pitch tonight, while frequent postseason participant Adam Wainwright will toe the rubber in what currently proves to be the regular season finale.

The series presents multiple challenges for the Cardinals. St. Louis has yet to choose a starting pitcher for tomorrow’s matchup between struggling probables Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha and Luke Weaver.

The Cardinals have also lost seven of their last ten games against Pittsburgh at Busch Stadium dating back to 2015. Not to mention, the Pirates have outscored the Cardinals in three of their five head-to-head series this season.

On the other hand, the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will have their work cut out to maintain their wild card spots over the Cardinals.

The Mets may be the safest bet for a spot given they have won five of their last seven games, albeit Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon are the only two starting pitchers remaining from their 2016 opening day rotation. The Giants will face a taller task against the NL West division winning Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a chance to claim home field advantage in the NLDS against the Washington Nationals.

Regardless of these implications, the Cardinals will have to win at least win at least one more game than the Giants or two more than the Mets to extend their season beyond Sunday. As the competition remains close with each passing day, there are a few complex scenarios through which the Cardinals could make a sixth straight run at postseason.

Three-way tie for both spots

If the Cardinals, Mets and Giants all finish with the same record, St. Louis would host the first of two National League play-in games against the Mets to determine which team claims the top wild card spot. Theoretically, this could occur if the Cardinals sweep the Pirates, the Giants win two of three against the Dodgers and the Mets only win one game against Philadelphia this weekend.

Based off Major League Baseball’s postseason format, the Cardinals would host the play-in game for the top Wild Card seed against the Mets on Monday. St. Louis and New York have identical head-to-head records (7-6) against one another and the Giants.

The next precedent for seeding would be divisional records. As long as the Cardinals win two of three against the Pirates to get into this position, they would finish with a better divisional record than the Mets and ultimately host New York at home.

The winner of the first-seed playoff game would still be in postseason contention and represent the home team for the official Wild Card game on Wednesday. The loser would host the Giants for the second play-in game to decide who takes the last Wild Card spot. Through this setup, the Cardinals would play two more games at Busch Stadium within three days, regardless of the outcome of the first qualifier.

Tie for second Wild Card spot, Game 163

In the event that one more regular season game were to be played, it would mean that the Cardinals share the same exact record with one of the two teams for the second seed between the Mets or Giants. Realistically, the game would be more likely against San Francisco, as New York only needs a combination of three Mets wins or Giants losses to claim the top spot.

Similar to a three-way tie circumstance, the Cardinals would host this contest at Busch Stadium on Monday or Tuesday because of their head-to-head advantage over San Francisco this season. However, this would serve as elimination game rather than a qualifier. Assuming New York finishes with the best record among the three, the winner of unofficially-labeled-Game 163 would advance to play the Mets in another Wild Card game on Wednesday.

Some teammates have valuable experience with the Game 163 arrangement. Matt Holliday scored the winning run on a dive to home plate to help the Rockies advance in 2007, while Jose Molina, Yadier’s brother, caught for David Price during Tampa Bay’s eventual play-in win over the Texas Rangers in 2013.

The Cardinals franchise has never played in a Game 163 since the MLB expanded postseason with the Wild Card format in 1995. Take note that if the Cardinals and Giants keep their rotations on normal rest, Mike Leake would likely square off against Jeff Samardzija for a Game 163.