St. Louis Cardinals: Odds are NOT in the Cards’ favor

michaeldavidmiles
Sep 28, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pinch hitter Kolten Wong (16) looks to the Cardinals dugout as he slides safely into third base with a triple against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pinch hitter Kolten Wong (16) looks to the Cardinals dugout as he slides safely into third base with a triple against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports /
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Four games remain in the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals season and each of these carry incredible weight if these Cardinals are to make the postseason via the wild card.

The St. Louis Cardinals complete their final game tonight against the Cincinnati Reds for the 2016 season.  Additionally, the Cardinals are working hard to secure wins if they wish to steal one of the wild card spots as they currently trail the Giants by one whole game for the second wild card spot.

Let’s put a pause and look at the projections and odds.  Can these St. Louis Cardinals find comfort in the odds or are they working hard to defeat them?  As the Giants take on the Dodgers this weekend, the Cardinals need to win and hope for Giant losses if they are to make the wild card.

The Giants, according to Fangraphs’ odds entering tonight’s slate of games, is predicted at 68.2% to make the wild card.  The Mets are predicted to make the wild card by a whooping 98.7%.  My, how nice!

How about the St. Louis Cardinals?  Sitting only one game back of the second spot should account for something right?  Think again… The Cardinals own only a 33.1% chance of making the wild card.  An uphill climb for sure.

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These percentages could all change rather quickly.  Thirty percent difference between the Cards and the Giants with so few games to play can easily flip positions.  One Cardinal win and one Giants loss and the two teams are tied.  At that point, the odds could level at 50% chance of either team securing that second spot.

Can it be done?  Sure it can.  The Cardinals need to start winning though.  As I write this article, the Cards are tied with the Reds 1-1 after the second inning.  Later tonight, the Giants will play the Rockies for the final time in 2016.  Every Cardinals and Mets fan is instantly a fan of the Rockies tonight.

Next: As Good As It Gets?

Stay tuned as we plow through these final games of the season.  We at Redbird Rants will bring you updated information on whether our birds are flying into the postseason or spiraling into a nose-dive.

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