St. Louis Cardinals: Will Alex Reyes Start in the Playoffs?

The St. Louis Cardinals are on pace to make the playoffs, should their number one prospect make the postseason rotation?

On August 8^th, 2016 Michael Wacha got the start at home against Cincinnati. He had beaten the Reds in his last start – but he lasted only 5 innings and allowed 2 runs on 6 hits while doing so. A win is a win, but the St. Louis Cardinals needed Wacha to go deeper into the game this time around and give the bullpen a much-needed break.

Wacha struggled again: Allowing 4 runs on 6 hits. It was his second straight start with only 5 innings pitched, and he finished with a no decision. The following day the Cardinals announced that Wacha would be placed on the 15-day DL with right shoulder inflammation. Consequently, an open spot in the rotation meant that call ups were inevitable.

St. Louis purchased the contract of Alexander Reyes and the 21-year-old, 8^th ranked prospect in baseball made his MLB debut that same day. He entered the game in the 9th and used only 11 pitches to retire the side in order. The first batter he faced was the powerful Adam Duvall. But Reyes showed him a slow breaking curve and then put him away with a fastball that hit 100 mph. 

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Despite the hot start, the Cardinals are being cautious with Reyes and finding his role on the staff. They opted to call up 23-year-old Luke Weaver and announced that he would start in Wacha’s place while Reyes would move to the pen. It’s not unlike the Cards to let their top prospects “warm up” in the bullpen. In 2006, starting pitching prospect Adam Wainwright debuted in relief, and went on to close out the World Series.

In 4 games he has struck out 9 batters, posted a WHIP of 0.86, and recorded his first save. It’s a small sample size, but his fastball is averaging 97.96 MPH, and his ERA is 0.00

Reyes has only pitched 7 innings and he has yet to make a start. Coming off of a 50-game suspension for the use of marijuana, St. Louis seems inclined to take it slow with his return. But Reyes has been downright filthy during those 7 innings. In 4 games he has struck out 9 batters, posted a WHIP of 0.86, and recorded his first save. It’s a small sample size, but his fastball is averaging 97.96 MPH, and his ERA is 0.00.

Meanwhile, Luke Weaver has made two starts and struggled. The 2014 first round pick has shown us flashes of greatness but he’s been thrown into a tough situation. He debuted at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, a difficult task for any pitcher this year. He lasted just 4 innings – allowing 7 baserunners and 2 runs. After a loss to Philadelphia, Weaver is now 0-1 with an ERA of 5.00.

The rotation has been brutal this year. After leading the NL with an ERA of 2.94 in 2015, the Cards’ staff has fallen to 7th in the league with an ERA of 4.05 and the starters have a combined record of 45-38. The silver lining in Wacha’s injury is that it gives the Cardinals the perfect excuse to see what the kids can do. Another tough start for Weaver could open the door for Reyes’ first start.

Carlos Martinez has emerged as the staff’s saving grace with an 11-7 record and a 3.24 ERA in 144 innings pitched. Not exactly the stats of an ace, but he is the only Cardinals starter to post a sub 4.00 ERA. If Carlos is tabbed as the game one starter how will the rest of rotation look? Is there room for Alex Reyes on a 3 or 4-man playoff rotation?

Adam Wainwright struggled to start the year coming off of an achilles injury that kept him out of most of 2015. He’s still trying to get his ERA below 4.00. He’s thrown only 151 innings through 25 starts and he could fall short of the 200 mark, something he hit perennially from ’09-2014.

Despite the early struggles Wainwright’s playoff resume can’t be ignored, and given the lack of qualified candidates, we should all expect to see him in the playoff rotation this year.

This is where things get interesting. The logical next choice is Jaime Garcia, who has the rotation’s second lowest ERA. In this case, however, “Second lowest” is a bit of a default. Garcia’s ERA is 4.11 and in 24 starts he’s only thrown 142.1 innings.

That’s an average of 5.92 innings per start. No surprise to those who have watched Garcia pitch. He struggles after his first two times through the order. He averages just 6.06 IP per start in his career.

Furthermore, Garcia has made 7 starts in the playoffs, but his innings total is just 29.2. Do the math with me: That’s just over 4 innings a start. Yikes. If Matheny is willing to trot out Garcia for 4-6 innings, while allowing multiple runs to score, I don’t see why he shouldn’t consider giving someone else the nod.

Again, it’s likely that Reyes gets a start before the year is up. If he pitches well in that role, it could give the Cards a decision to make. In the event that Garcia is scheduled to face a righty heavy line-up in the playoffs, I’d be in favor of giving the kid a shot. A marijuana suspension is not the same as recovering from an injury or dropping a PED regiment. Reyes can go at least 6 innings.

I recognize that rushing Reyes into a playoff rotation is not necessarily wise, nor is it the Cardinals’ style. Mike Leake is much more likely to start in that scenario. But Leake is struggling with a 4.45 ERA and he too struggles with getting past the 6th inning.

Wacha’s health is a real question mark and even when he’s healthy this year, he is struggling to produce quality starts. My question is: Why not take the risk?

Next: Lance Lynn Moving Towards Becoming a Factor

Every starter outside of Martinez has struggled mightily. This team leads the NL in errors, allows 4.05 earned runs a game, and has a sub .500 record at home. So what is there to lose? Dude throws 101. Let’s see what he’s got.