St. Louis Cardinals: Departed Players Are NOT Better

The St. Louis Cardinals allowed a few players to walk this offseason and traded others away.  As we reach the close of spring, there are many who are disappointed with the Cardinals performance, but are those departed players any better?

Players come and players go and this offseason was a busy one for the St. Louis Cardinals.  While we are told to read nothing into spring training statistics, this year’s club seems to continue its lackluster performance of old leading many to issue concern.  In thinking this way, one might easily fall prey to the thought that those departed players may well be out-performing this year’s squad, but is this a fallacy?

If we are going to examine this fallacy- which it surely is a fallacy- then we ought to compare the performance of the departed players to those who the Cardinals have kept on the squad and/or gained through the departures.

And, since we are told to read nothing into spring stats, we should compare these players using those stats to which nothing should be read.  At least in doing so, we will be comparing the same faulty statistics.

A further note about the stats to be used for comparison, for comparison ease I will focus these side-by-sides looking exclusively at offensive numbers with the exception of pitchers.  I will not examine defensive.

Why might you ask?  All the current complaints against the 2016 Cardinals seem to be circulating around the idea of another lame offensive year– so let’s see if the organization has reason to regret these lost players.

Moving one step beyond the statistical comparison, we should also look to see if we can predict whether the departed players will break camp with the MLB squad.  I mention this because I anticipate that some will not be set to break camp or even to make the active roster of their new landing spots.

Sit back and enjoy this rollercoaster ride through remaining and departed players.

Next: Pete Kozma

Pete Kozma- SS

I was never- never- a fan of one Pete Kozma.  I never rooted for him and never saw much that would warrant rooting.  For some reason, however, the Cardinals for so long couldn’t shuffle him off the squad.  That all came to a halt in the offseason of 2015 when the Cardinals granted him free agency.

Let’s look at his spring numbers:

I, for one am glad that we have sent a slash line of .167/.231/.250 packing.  A quick note about these numbers: these came against AAA-equivalent players (see the 8.4 OppQual number) which indicates that Kozma couldn’t hold a candle to MLB players with which we are all too familiar.  In his place, the Cardinals have at-best Ruben Tejada, and at worst Greg Garcia.  Let’s look at each of their spring numbers:

Tejada-

Tejada, two years younger than Kozma, is out-performing Kozma when facing similarly-talented players.  Out-performing is a nice way of saying that Tejada is almost doubling the numbers exhibited.  A reminder, I am labeling Tejada the at-best scenario for the Cardinals when comparing the shortstop position.

How about the at-worst scenario, Garcia?

Like Tejada before him, Garcia is two years younger than Kozma.  While facing slightly lesser-abled players, Garcia (again, the Cardinals at-worst scenario at shortstop) is also out-performing Kozma if not by much.  Anyone want Kozma back?

Next: Center Fielders

Center Fielders

St. Louis Cardinals sent Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos to the middle outfield position in 2015.  Both of these players were sent on their way during the winter of 2015.  Bourjos was sent packing due to his failed experiment (as it was often called) and Jay was used as a trade piece to land Jedd Gyorko.  Are Jay and Bourjos having a better spring than the Cardinals’ 2016 center fielders?

Let’s start by examining Jon Jay’s spring numbers:

These numbers, against AAA-equivalent players, are very respectable which indicates clearly the value of using Jay to gain Gyorko.  Before making drawing any conclusions as to whether Jay is better than the players on the 2016 roster, let’s turn our attention to Bourjos.

Bourjos too is posting respectable numbers (if only against AAA-equivalent players) but are these two players better than the Cardinals players?  To the numbers of the 2016 center fielders, Randal Grichuk and Tommy Pham.

First, Tommy Pham:

Pham, one year younger than Bourjos and three years younger than Jay, is posting lower numbers than the departed players.  That stated, Pham has recorded three stolen bases while only Boujos has recorded even one.  This is important as part of the Bourjos experiment was to provide speed to the Cardinals.  Pham is better, in this regard, to the departed players.

How about Grichuk?  Is he doing better than Jay and/or Bourjos?

As you can see here, Grichuk- seven years younger than Jay and five years younger than Bourjos- is out-performing the 2015 center fielders in all three fields of his slash line.

Taking these greater numbers into consideration and taking into consideration his younger age (and likely thereby longer trajectory with the team), Grichuk illustrates how the departed players are NOT better than what is on the squad this season.

Next: Tony Cruz

Tony Cruz- C

Like Kozma before him, I was never a fan of Tony Cruz.  I wanted to like him because something told me that I should like the backup to Yadier Molina considering Yadi’s increasing age but I simply couldn’t buy into like Cruz because of his poor defense, poor offense, and- to me- seeming ineptitude at calling a game (a must for a catcher).

Before showing Cruz’s 2016 spring numbers, let me assuage any naysayers who might attack me instantly should I compare Cruz to Molina– this is not my intent and not what I am going to do.  Instead, I will use this section to compare Cruz to the player added thanks to his departure, Brayan Pena.

Let’s look at Cruz’s 2016 spring thus far:

Is there anyone who even contemplates a desire to have this performance on the team?  These pitiful numbers are at the hands of players not even reaching the AAA-equivalency!  .118/.118/.147 in sixteen games?! No, thank you.

How about Pena?

While not astronomically better than Cruz, Pena’s years of experience shine brighter than that of Cruz.  It is tough to produce, as Pena might well see, in the shadow of Yadi.  What was at once promised as a setback for Yadi this spring and thereby additional playing time for Pena, has turned into just the opposite.

In spite of this, however, Pena is out-performing Cruz and is doing so with a much better demeanor– reporters gush about him being the happiest player they know.  Anyone want Tony Cruz back?

Next: John Lackey

John Lackey- RHP

This walk-away hurt the feelings of some Cardinal faithful.  I was not in this camp.  I liked Lackey, for sure, but was okay with him walking as he is growing older and I felt that the Cardinals got the best out of him possible and that “best” is less and less likely to be repeated.  Let’s look and see how he is doing this spring:

Wow.  Lackey, the workhorse of the 2015 Cardinals, has now allowed seventeen hits in thirteen innings this spring.  In addition, his ten- yes, 10- allowed earned runs has blown his ERA to a massive 6.92.  I, for one, do not want that in the Cardinals rotation.

In Lackey’s absence, the Cardinals’ plan was to replace him with David Price.  We all know how those negotiations ended.  Then came the idea that Marco Gonzales and/or Tim Cooney would hold down the fort which survived until Lance Lynn‘s elbow decided to go AWOL.  Enter, Mike Leake who has been referred to as the younger Lackey.

Let’s look:

Leake, nine years younger than Lackey, has pitched sixteen innings to Lackey’s thirteen innings and has held hitters to half the amount of earned runs and five additional strikeouts recorded compared to Lackey.  All of these better numbers contribute to Leake having an ERA of 2.81– a total of 4.11 points lower than Lackey’s ERA.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Leake will post numbers this season strong enough to have him in Cy Young discussions while Lackey will not.  I’m going to also go out on a limb and predict that Lackey will have a very down year.  Wishful thinking?  Maybe, but I’d take Leake over Lackey as the numbers show now.

Next: Jason Heyward