St. Louis Cardinals: Trevor Rosenthal’s future

More than likely, Rosenthal continues to dazzle in the closer role in 2016 and beyond.

From Mark Tomasik(@RetroSimba):

Based on his 2 full seasons as closer, I project Trevor Rosenthal to earn more than 30 saves, have more strikeouts than innings pitched and post an ERA below 3.00 in 2016.

Yes, Cardinals will sign him long-term. In this age of specialization, he’s likely to remain a reliever his entire career.

From Josey Curtis(STL Sports Minute, @Curtis_Josey)

Despite the fact that I feel as if Oh will receive a handful of save opportunities, I think Rosenthal will post another year with over 40 saves. I’d say the ERA and strikeout total will stay about the same and — if there is such a thing as a luck — that walk count will fall a bit.

I think the Cardinals will give him a multi-year deal at some point this season or early after. Frankly, I thought they’d try to ink him up this offseason or at least buy out his arbitration years. I’m curious to see when (if) the Cardinals sign him how much of a pay raise he receives.

We saw Baltimore give O’Day a four-year, $31 million deal and Kansas City give Joakim Soria one for three years and $25 million. Rosenthal got $5.6 million to avoid arbitration in January. It makes one wonder how much the price of Trevor will increase when it is used in a multi-year deal.

I think Rosenthal will stay a closer for his career, assuming he remains a Cardinal. However, what’s to say Oh won’t continue his success over here, or Tuivailala won’t make it big in the next few seasons? Another thing that’s important in fulfilling my thought is his health.

I remember arm tightness popping up last season, but it was excused with some rest. As the innings log with pitchers, we see things like arm tightness turn to DL stints which turn to surgery and a lengthened stint. Keeping Rosenthal fresh is obviously crucial to his health and the team’s, too.

With Siegrist seemingly capable of closing some games and Oh, I think Matheny will be a little more apt to resting his prized reliever.

Next: Oh sharing some of the saves load?

Will the newcomer from Korea share some of the late inning workload or is it all Rosie?

From Tom Knuppel(CardinalsGM):

If healthy all season I see 32 saves and a 2.87 ERA… I do believe OH will get some that normally go to Rosenthal. Also, I am believing they try to wrap up a contract for a few years with him. I don’t see him converting to a starter as long as he is with the Cardinals.

From Jon Doble(Redbird Dugout):

Part 1

My projections for Trevor Rosenthal is that he probably posts an ERA of about 2.70, a WHIP around 1.30 and racks up another 40+ save season. But let’s be honest here, John Mozeliak went out and stacked his bullpen, but Mike Matheny is still a modern manager and a creature of habit. That means the closer gets the save opportunities.

Now, Kevin Siegrist or Seung-Hwan Oh may get the occasional save opportunity when we’re talking about the third day in a row, I could see them trying to avoid using Rosenthal three days in a row, but they won’t regularly be taking saves away from him. It wouldn’t surprise me either if there was some kind of understanding reached with Rosenthal as part of his accepting a long-term bullpen role.

Part 2

I’m sure the Cardinals would love to give Rosenthal a multi-year deal, but since he’s represented by Scott Boras, it is likely an uphill battle.

How these deals usually work is the player trades a year or two of free agency in exchange for guaranteed money. We saw this with Kolten Wong’s extension. Right now, Rosenthal is primed to hit free agency at 28 years old. If he puts up three more years like the last two, he will be a highly sought after player. So, unless the Cardinals are willing to go big, I doubt there is much interest in getting tied up with the Cardinals right now.

On the team’s side, even just buying out the remaining arbitration years seems unlikely. There would be cost certainty, but the risk of injury to guys who throw that hard and the potential risk of flaming out like closers do, I think is enough to keep it from happening. Because of all of that, I’d be surprised if Rosenthal goes more than year-to-year with the Cardinals.

Part 3

Rosenthal may or may not remain a closer for his entire career, but I do know that he will remain as a relief pitcher. There is just no precedent–and way too much injury risk involved–for moving an established reliever to the starting rotation.

The Cardinals won’t move him because he’s too valuable in his current role and they don’t need starting pitching. A new team is unlikely to sign him as a starter because of the injury risk associated with the increase in innings and nobody knows what he will do in the rotation either. If he wants to be a starter, he’ll need to basically eat a year to make the transition. And that’s not going to happen.

Next: Rosie will get his saves

If Rosenthal dips below 40 saves, the Cards have a problem.

From Matt Whitener(Cheap Seats Please)–I expect Trevor to stay at about the same level this year statistically. I would anticipate 40+ saves, an ERA in the 2.25 range over 65 apperances and 85 k’s. He’s a rising star on a competitive team that has plenty of opportunities for him to get on the field. If Trevor dips below 40 saves, this team is having trouble winning, period.

As for a multi-year deal, I’m not so optimistic there. He’s a Boras guy and as such, I always lean towards the idea of him staying out for the optimal pay out. It’s just his representative’s business tactics. Trevor could be in line to see between $8M to $10M in year 2 arb if he only just stays healthy, let alone continues to be a 40-save lock. If the Cardinals do look extension, it would be next spring.

As for being a closer for his entire career, tomorrow never knows. That is a tough role and one that claims more than it preserves. At the same time, I think he’s in that role throughout his 20’s at least and that any notion of him becoming a starter again should be tucked away, especially in St. Louis.
 

Next: What if Rosie gets hurt?

Time for devil’s advocate. What if Rosenthal gets hurt? Who shoulders the load and how does that affect Rosie’s future?

Now that my UCB colleagues have spoken, let’s flip the bed completely and play against the good ending. What if Rosenthal got hurt?

Imagine 2016 where Rosenthal goes down? His elbow has taken the assault of close to 2,000 pitches the past two seasons and several of those outings were extremely high leverage and included more changeups. Does the effect of that Matheny weight come crashing down this season? Who takes over in the immediate aftermath of a Rosenthal injury?

Kevin Siegrist is my first pic. He filled in the role nicely last year and has the stuff. The Cards call up a LOOGY in Dean Kiekhefer or Sam Tuivailala and let Siegrist flame on in the 9th. Or, the Final Boss aka Stone Buddha aka Mr. Oh could get his shot if he impresses early on. I can easily see him getting a shot if Rosenthal goes down.

Jordan Walden and Jonathan Broxton(DRINK!) are up there as well. This is a pen of closers ladies and gents. Options abound.

Next: The Bottom Line...

The bottom line St. Louis Cardinals fans is that you will still see the image above quite a bit in 2016.

My take from the Trevor Rosenthal future saga is this.

First, he will save 42 games in 2016 and compile an ERA of 2.15 with a WHIP that drops to around 1.05. Rosenthal sharpened up his WHIP and first batter out percentage in 2015 and it will improve as he gets older and smarter.

His backup will provide him with more rest so I don’t see him getting a golf cart from Adam Wainwright(he can ride with Matt Carpenter in his so it’s all good). Still, he will get plenty of chances and again be among the MLB lead in saves. His save percentage will be right around 93-94 percent and his strikeouts will stay around 9-10 per 9 innings. I do expect his innings load to drop.

Second, next season I smell a three year team/player friendly deal that carries Rosenthal closer to age 30 and the point of no return for a longer contract. Scott Boras or not, Rosenthal and the Cards come together on a deal if he produces another high quality season. You can have seven closer types in the pen but you can’t get rid of a guy who is very very good at his job. Siegrist is more likely to leave than Rosenthal, especially if he really wants to start.

Next: Cardinals Mailbag

Third, I do see Rosenthal finishing as a closer/reliever. His starting days were buried in the 2012 minor leagues folks. He started 20 games that year before coming up to the Cards late in the season. He is a closer or possibly towards the very end of his career, a setup man. You don’t see a guy spend 3-5 seasons as a closer and switch over to a starter. It’s usually the other way around.

Those are my predictions on Rosenthal, aka Super Smoke Stack(my nickname!).

Thanks for reading and always find me on Twitter to tell me how good or bad I am doing here, @buffa82.