St. Louis Cardinals against the National League: San Diego Padres
After a disappointing 2015 campaign, the San Diego Padres have overhauled their roster once again heading into 2016. The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Friars seven times this year.
2015 Record: 74-88
Notable Departures: SP Odrisamer Despaigne, SP Ian Kennedy, OF Justin Upton, IF Jedd Gyorko, 1B Yonder Alonso, SP Bud Norris, RP Craig Kimbrel, RP Joaquin Benoit
Notable Newcomers: RP Fernando Rodney, SS Alexei Ramirez, RP Carlos Villanueva, OF Jon Jay, RP Drew Pomeranz
Against St. Louis in 2016: 3 games April 22-24 @SD, 4 games July 18-21 @STL
The Outlook:
The Padres had realistic aspirations of competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West crown heading into 2015. They made upgrades across the board offensively, adding the likes of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris to a unit that finished last in baseball in runs scored in 2014.
The result in 2015 was a slight uptick in scoring (they finished 23rd overall) but the Padres finished last in baseball in team batting average this time around, checking in at .243.
Even with the additions of James Shields at the front of their rotation and Craig Kimbrel before the trade deadline to close out ballgames, the Padres finished 20th and 22nd respectively in team ERA and runs allowed.
It all added up to a -81 run differential (24th in baseball) and the organization’s fifth-straight losing season. 2015 was the eighth sub-.500 campaign in nine years for the Padres.
The Padres blew up that group this offseason. Outside of Kemp in right, Norris behind the dish, Yangervis Solarte at third and Shields on the mound, the Padres project to have a completely new collection of faces as Opening Day starters.
According to MLB.com’s projected 2016 depth chart for the Padres, the outfield will be Jay, Melvin Upton Jr., and Kemp from left to right, with Wil Myers moving to first base. The up-the-middle combo figures to be newly signed shortstop Alexei Ramirez and Cory Spangenberg and second base.
The Padres figure to be solid in the first three spots of their starting rotation with proven guys like Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. 25-year-old Brandon Maurer will look to earn a rotation spot, after posting a 7-4 record with a 3.00 ERA in 51.0 innings out of the bullpen last year. He struggled as a starter the prior two seasons in Seattle, posting a 6-12 record over 21 starts with a 5.60 ERA.
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Former Cardinal reliever Carlos Villanueva is a candidate to compete for a rotation spot as well. While there wasn’t a role in that capacity for Villanueva while he was in St. Louis, the 32-year-old has started 76 games in his career.
The Padres will look to Fernando Rodney to close out ballgames in 2016 with the departure of Craig Kimbrel. There are big questions about the rest of the San Diego bullpen, though. Relievers Nick Vincent and Kevin Quackenbush turned in respectable 2015 campaigns, but neither seems to boast dominant eighth inning stuff.
I really do not see any way to argue that the Padres improved this offseason. There are major questions at the back end of their starting rotation, and the middle-to-late relief innings do not show any more certainty.
Likewise, I don’t see where an uptick in offensive production is going to come from either. Jon Jay could be very important to that unit in 2016. If he is able to establish himself as .300 hitter at the top of their lineup, it could go a long way in setting up the big bats like Kemp and Norris for big seasons.
It is my opinion that a lack of roster stability in recent years has been the biggest issue for the Padres. They never seem sure if they are going to go into rebuilding mode or try and build for a contender.
With Kemp and Norris at the center of it, the Padres should look to establish a core of guys to build around and work on developing their three top 100 prospects, along with the rest of their farm system.
The Cardinals faced the Padres seven times in 2015, losing the season series four games to three. The Cardinals own the all-time series lead against the Padres by a count of 273-190. I am expecting a result much more along those lines in 2016.
Next: St. Louis Cardinals against the National League: Colorado Rockies
With four games in St. Louis, I expect the Cardinals to win three of four, as the Cardinals are 25-10 against the Friars in games played at Busch Stadium III. I think the Cardinals take two of three in late-April in Southern California, resulting in a 5-2 season series win.