St. Louis Cardinals’ Spring Training Countdown: Ten Days

We are down to ten days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.  In anticipation of the spring, I will look at one player per day for the next ten days whom I am excited to see in Memphis this year. Today’s name is Marco Gonzales.

I love spring training.  I love seeing what is in store both for the big club and for the players to come.  I admit, however, that as I was growing up I hated Spring Training because I felt that the “big boys” never saw enough playing time.  As I have grown in age, I have come to appreciate watching the “young guns” find their footing and seeing just what the future may provide.

As the St. Louis Cardinals are looking at what Jason Heyward called their aging core, this year’s Spring Training should provide a great field upon which the “young guns” will show up.  In looking forward atfuture players that will eventually arrive in Memphis, I will spend the next ten days examining one player per day that excites me, a player that I cannot wait to see with the birds on the bat in Memphis.

Marco Gonzales

I’ll start my exploration over these ten days with a pitcher who excites me to no end, Marco Gonzales.  Gonzales is an amazing pitcher who will, undoubtedly before the end of this season, contribute to the Major League squad.

However, in mine and in others’ estimations (see Jennifer Langosch’s January 28 article) Gonzales will likely start 2016 with Memphis.  While this might be disappointing for Marco, we in Memphis are thrilled to have a talent of his caliber as a starter for the Redbirds.

Producing as a starter in Memphis should definitely secure him a spot in the bullpen and/or as a replacement starter for any impending injury.  I believe he will start in Memphis, as do many other writers, due in large part to Tyler Lyons‘ lacking options and the necessity for a lefty in the pen in the absence of LOOGY, Randy Choate.  And speaking of Choate, can we all agree that we are NOT beside ourselves in his absence– that we all celebrated his departure?

Let’s dig a little deeper into why Gonzales is so exciting. First, Marco will just be turning 24 in nine days.  This means that he still has plenty of time to develop.  An examination of his past shows areas for his development.  In 2015, Gonzales tossed 69.1 innings for Memphis with an ERA of 5.45 (45.2 innings for Memphis in 2014 with an ERA of 3.35).

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According to Fangraphs, Marco’s STEAMER projection for his ERA in 2016 is a nice 4.04.  This alone shows that they anticipate a nice progression for this young pitcher in one season alone.  Baseball-Reference.com predicts Marco’s 2016 ERA a touch higher at 4.14.

Digging into these stats shows some interesting data. In 2014 with Memphis Marco boasted a 7.69 K/9 ratio compared to 1.77 BB/9 which turned into 6.62 K/9 to 3.12 BB/9 in 2015, albeit, with both coming over relatively small sample sizes.

This raises a few questions. Did injury play into the slight dip in strikeouts? Did Marco incorporate or utilize different pitches to induce greater bat-to-ball contact rather than strikeouts? did Marco fail to command the zone well enough to prevent walks?  All of these are valid points and suggest increased appearances in AAA at the start of 2016, which excites this writer that will be covering the Memphis team this year.

A final point of excitement about Gonzales is the question of what he does with pitch selection. In 2014, Gonzales employed a fastball 57.5% of the time, a slider 5.6% of the time, a curveball 9.7% of the time, and a changeup 27.2% of the time.

In 2015, his selections dropped the slider and instead employed the fastball 63.6% of the time, curveball 7.6% of the time, and changeup 28.8% of the time.  These numbers might explain the tightening of the ratio between K/9 and BB/9. It could also indicate that Gonzales found better results from a developed fastball.

And speaking of the fastball, in 2014 Marco employed a 4-seam with a velocity of 90.0 mph and a two-seamer at 89.0 mph– both of which disappeared in 2015.  In 2014, Gonzales’ sinker ran in at 89.5 and in 2015 the sinker (seemingly the exclusive fastball selected) ran in at 89.3.

I am interested to see if 2016 brings a resurgence in the 4-seam and 2-seam or if Marco sticks with the sinker (the disappearance of the 4-seam and 2-seam did not directly affect his ground ball percentage).

In short, I must admit that I’m a sucker for a good lafty on the mound.  I like Marco and think he has a great future.  I’m not 100% sold that this future is with the Cardinals, but am glad to have the chance to watch him in person for a while with Memphis.  Do I think he will be traded?  Yes.

I bet someone like Colorado will find him a regular spot in their starting lineup.  Until that happens, we can all enjoy watching him develop.  And who knows, he just might jump into the big pond should an injury appear.

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Follow me on twitter and keep watching for a new article over these next ten days as I look at the players who excite me for the upcoming season!