St. Louis Cardinals: Four reasons Adam Wainwright will be a Cy Young finalist

Everyone is doubting the St. Louis Cardinals, but maybe their ace is still an ace, capable of dominating the National League yet again.

St. Louis Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright was on the mound in Milwaukee last April 25th making just his fourth start of the young season when disaster struck. The game started off promising enough. Wainwright was coasting to four scoreless innings and had yielded just three hits while striking out four Brewers batters.

Uncle Charlie was doing what he does best.

Then Wainwright stepped to the plate to bat in the top of the fifth. As soon as he swung and fell to the ground, my stomach churned. When Wainwright grabbed his left foot and had to be helped off the field, my fears were only further confirmed.

It’s easy to forget that the Cardinals went on to win that game 5-3, because who they lost that day was more significant — their ace had torn his left Achilles tendon.

After his surgery, the diagnosis was 9 to 12 months for recovery. Amazingly, Wainwright returned in five and even pitched several successful innings out of the bullpen. Despite the early return, there are some who doubt whether Wainwright can return to form this season.

I am on the other side of the argument, I strongly believe Wainwright will be back to his old tricks next season. Actually, I believe that Wainwright will be back among the league’s best next season. Here are four reasons Wainwright will be a Cy Young Finalist in 2016.

Next: He has something to prove

1. He has something to prove

Last week, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and its baseball experts had one of their early fantasy mock drafts. Guess where Wainwright was taken — in the 7th round behind 21 other pitchers.

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That didn’t fly with the 34-year old, and when he caught word of that decision he decided to call into SiriusXm Fantasy Sports and talk it out. If you missed the soundbite, check it out here. It’s fantastic. Much of Wainwright’s comments were tongue and cheek, but you can tell he was a bit peeved too.

“If these are so-called experts doing this draft, maybe you guys should start looking for a different occupation…All you guys who pass on me in the first six rounds, I’m going to make you regret that decision,” Wainwright said.

You have to love Wainwright’s tenacity.

Mix in Jason Heyward’s “Cardinals aging core” comments, and you’ve got some extra motivation for Wainwright in 2016. As if he needed it.

“All you guys who pass on me in the first six rounds, I’m going to make you regret that decision.” — Adam Wainwright

When you consider Wainwright backing up his comments about his comeback last season. It’s easy to see he has a tremendous chip on his shoulder and will be getting after it in 2016. I expect nothing less from one of the hardest working pitchers in the game.

Next: Rested and ready

2. His arm is healthy and he’s got gas in the tank

Have people forgotten that Wainwright’s injury was not arm related?

This was an Achilles injury. Now, I’m not trying to take the injury lightly. It’s a serious one. But Wainwright proved by coming back early and pitching effectively out of the bullpen last year that his injury is healed.

The more important news is that Wainwright’s arm is fine. The last time Wainwright really struggled for a full season was in 2012 — the year he came back from Tommy John surgery. Wainwright finished 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA that season marking the first time he finished with an ERA over 3.70 since becoming a starter in 2007.

That struggle was arm related, this season it won’t be. The two seasons before and after that 2012 season Wainwright averaged 19.5 wins and a 2.59 ERA.

Wainwright isn’t injury prone either.

His two biggest injuries with the Cardinals have been the torn Achilles last season and needing Tommy John surgery in 2011. Otherwise, Wainwright has been extremely durable and reliable.

The fact is when Wainwright’s arm is healthy he is a Cy Young contender. If there’s a bright side to Wainwright missing virtually all of last season, it’s that the Cardinals’ ace is well rested going into 2016.

From 2009 to 2014 Wainwright averaged 228 innings pitched. From 2012 to 2014, Wainwright tossed 667.1 total innings, which ranks fourth in all of baseball during that span and first in the National League. Last season, Wainwright only threw 28 innings, essentially saving 200 innings on his arm. That rest will prove crucial for Adam this year.

There’s still plenty of miles left on that arm. Look for Wainwright to get back to his inning-eating days — possibly even eclipsing 230 IP in 2016.

Next: Track Record

3. He has the track record

It was only two seasons ago in 2014 when Wainwright finished with a 20-9 record, 179 strikeouts, five complete games, three shutouts, a 2.38 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 227 IP. That year Wainwright finished third in the Cy Young voting.

In 2013 Wainwright finished 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.068 WHIP, five complete games, two shutouts and a career-high in strikeouts (219) and innings pitched (241.2). He finished second in the Cy Young voting as well.

From 2009 to 2014, Wainwright has finished second in the Cy Young Award twice and third two times. That’s a pretty impressive resume.

Not to mention, Wainwright was rolling along to start the 2015 season. The Cardinals ace started the year on a fast pace going 2-1 with a miniscule 1.71 ERA in three starts, all quality starts. Small sample size, you say? Fair enough.

Dating back to the 2014 season Wainwright actually owns a regular-season streak of seven straight quality starts. During this current streak he owns a 1.00 ERA and a 0.926 WHIP in a whopping 54 innings pitched, averaging just under eight innings a start (7.7).

So, who’s to say Wainwright can’t keep that streak going? Sure, he came out of the bullpen a few times at the end of last season, but that was only to test the waters. Wainwright is the guy who will lead this Cardinals rotation in 2016. Once he’s gotten some spring training starts under his belt, he will be ready to go.

Make no mistake, if Wainwright pitches a full, healthy season this year his name will be in the Cy Young talks. He has the track record to prove it.

Next: He made a bet with Matt Carpenter