Five takeaways following the St. Louis Cardinals’ early postseason exit

Oct 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher Tony Cruz (48) is tagged out by Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Montero (47) during the sixth inning of game four of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

After Tuesday’s Game 4 loss against the Chicago Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals became the ninth 100-win team to face a division series postseason exit in the 21st century, falling victim to modern era theory that postseason is not won by the best team, but the team that performs the best in October.

The tables turned quickly for St. Louis, who dropped their last three games of the postseason for the fourth consecutive year. After John Lackey established momentum with a vintage performance in Game 1, the Cubs powered through the next three games and never looked back, scoring 15 of their 20 runs via the home run.

While the Cardinals showed signs of strength and resilience throughout the series, mistakes proved costly and exposed concerns for team’s fate in the near future. Missing the NLCS for the first time since 2011, here are five takeaways from the series that need to be addressed if the Cardinals want to improve on their postseason performance from 2015.

October 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher John Lackey (41) looks down as he is requested to exchange baseballs during his pitch in the third inning against Chicago Cubs in game four of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

2. Contract Decisions Could Leave Big Holes

John Lackey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia made a combined total of just over $17.5 million in 2015, proving as bargains throughout a season in which they combined for a 12.6 aggregate WAR. It’s difficult to say that the Cardinals would be in the postseason without the contributions of all three, something that could possibly affect the Cardinals next year.

Shortly following the loss, impending free agent Jason Heyward described the possibility of staying with the Cardinals as the “ideal situation”, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Going into the offseason as one of the most productive outfielders and youngest free agents, Heyward projects for a large pay day that may have St. Louis second-guessing their current outfield situation.

As for the pitchers, it’s difficult to imagine that the Cardinals bring back Lackey with a slew of young pitchers around a healthy Adam Wainwright. The same motive could cause St. Louis to decline Garcia’s services the upcoming season with the possibility of a $500,000 buyout, which would leave the rotation without a bonafide southpaw.

Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Stephen Piscotty (55) collides with St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong (16) during the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs in game three of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

3. Position Players Must Improve Discipline

Like it or not, the Cardinals are expected to roll around a core of home grown power-hitters in the upcoming season such as Randal Grichuk, Kolten Wong and Matt Adams. While balancing power-driven hitters into a lineup could add pressure to opponents, it also provides swing-and-miss capabilities that derive from a lack of discipline

The Cardinals struck out 15 times in their elimination game, falling into a all-or-nothing trap which caused several hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone. Grichuk and Wong both struck out in over 30% of their plate appearances in the series, limiting the effectiveness of potential rallies near the bottom of the order.

St. Louis also struggled with fundamental defense throughout the series, particularly in Game 2 when defensive errors from Jaime Garcia and Kolten Wong led to a five-run second inning outburst for the Cubs. A team consisting of young players will inevitably make mistakes, but working toward improvements around these persisting lapses could prepare a more-matured core of starting position players in the event that the Cardinals make it to the postseason for their sixth straight season.

October 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Kevin Siegrist (46) reacts after giving up a solo home run to Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (not pictured) in the sixth inning in game four of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

4. Decline Expected In Pitching Next Season

The 2015 Cardinals’ staff became the first core of pitchers to finish with an earned run average under 3.00 (2.94) in the 21st century, oftentimes bailing an inconsistent offense out of trouble during the regular season. However, a different microcosm unfolded by the postseason, where the pitchers surrendered 10 home runs that proved costly in the matter of three close losses.

If veterans such as John Lackey, Jaime Garcia and Jonathan Broxton all end up with new homes over the Winter, the whole entire complexity of the Cardinals pitching depth changes suddenly. Obviously, Adam Wainwright performed above expectations following his expedited recovery from an Achilles injury, but what more can fans expect as he turns 35 next season. A similar argument could be made for Lance Lynn, if hitters remember to pounce on his fastball early or force him to work deeper into counts.

One also has to consider the pressure imposed on the younger pitchers that led to disappointments during the stretch of the season. Much of this pressure came after the Cardinals decided to stop skipping starts in mid-September, eventually leading to a season-ending shoulder injury from Carlos Martinez and a 7.88 ERA in the final month for Michael Wacha.

The season ended with question marks for the bullpen as well, most notably when relief appearance leader Kevin Siegrist surrendered three home runs in tough assignments against left-handed power threats Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber.

Next: Is Michael Wacha overrated?

Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny (26) speaks after game three of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

5. Management Needs Improvement

Many advocates could make the case that Mike Matheny deserves manager of the year honors for his ability to bring out a 100-win team around all of the injuries he faced. However, just as many adversaries could argue that certain decisions on behalf of Matheny doomed the Cardinals toward their only first-round postseason exit in his four-year tenure.

The consistency of getting into postseason is there, but how often does a team’s postseason run get remembered if it ends with three consecutive losses year after year? Managing in the postseason is almost like a game of poker and more times than not Matheny did not play his cards right.

Many of these questionable decisions unfolded on the road, starting with Game 3. After the Cardinals offense established some momentum against Cy Young hopeful Jake Arrieta to take a 2-1 lead into the fourth inning, Matheny rolled the dice with Michael Wacha in hopes that the 24-year old would overcome issues that led to four base runners through his first three frames of work.

As Wacha’s inability to command the strike zone continued, he allowed the go-ahead, two-run home run to a struggling Kris Bryant. This moment ultimately changed the course of the series, given that Matheny did not act upon change in times of danger and left several rested relief pitchers without an opportunity to challenge the Cubs’ rookie.

The what-if applications go on and on, whether it be pitching Siegrist against hitters he has historically struggled with or playing the waiting game with offensive struggling veterans Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta too long. All of these situational mishaps serve as lessons for Matheny and other managerial influences to learn from in the offseason, considering that all four division rivals have shown signs of improvement for seasons to come.

Next: 2015 St. Louis Cardinals' Season Review: Disappointments