Can David Freese Attain Icon Status in St. Louis?

I have been spending way too much time debating the St. Louis Cardinals outfield situation recently, so I’m going to shift my focus to the infield over the coming days. I’ll begin with the hometown hero, third baseman David Freese. The National League Championship Series and World Series MVP, has created a mythical image that may be hard to maintain. Difficult as it may be, Freese has the makeup to perform well enough over the next few years and establish himself as one of the focal points of the Cardinals roster. Will it increase to icon status? That depends on how much he is able to elevate his game and if his personal achievements are combined with another World Championship.

Freese, it should be stated, has yet to play a full regular season in the majors. Freese has been very productive in his short stints. In 667 plate appearances spread over three seasons, he has produced a 4.4 WAR. That is a pretty good number. At 29 years old, Freese doesn’t have much more time to put a stamp on his career. Most career paths begin the downward trend in the early/mid 30’s, which he is now approaching.

Freese has unfortunately had a bit of an injury bug which has impeded his ability to play a full season. He came out of the gate incredibly strong in 2011, hitting .365 with 2 HR, 12 R, 14 RBI and an OPS of .878 through April. His wOBA was .383. Unfortunately he suffered a broken hand in early May which cost him two full months of playing time. This, after Freese had reconstructive surgery on his right ankle in 2010; suffered while rehabbing in the minors. The previous season he had surgery on the other ankle. To say he has been unlucky is an understatement, but for all the bad luck, it changed quickly in the 2011 postseason. The legend of David Freese began.

To say Freese went on a tear, would not put things in proper perspective. He was a beast. He did it all the way through the postseason. Besides the consistency, he had timely hits, virtually every chance he had at the plate, to the extent that there was disappointment if he didn’t come through (this hardly happened). A big hit was expected of him each time he came up in a big spot and typically he delivered.

He ended the postseason with a triple slash line of .397/.465/.794 with 5 homers and 20 RBIs. In the epic World Series Game 6, you may remember Freese hit the game tying triple with the Cardinals down to their last strike. He then homered in the 11th and finished off a game the Cardinals probably should not have won.

Freese now has a chance to extend the good will into a regular season, which is actually pretty important for him and his future in St. Louis. If Freese can replicate what he has accomplished over a full regular season, he could force Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak into making a decision on who will play third base in St. Louis for the foreseeable future.

There are two prospects currently behind Freese, Matt Carpenter in AAA and Zack Cox right behind him in AA. Cox, a first round draft pick of the Cardinals in 2010, is under a MLB contract through 2013. Freese is arbitration eligible in 2013. See where this could go if Freese falters or suffers yet another injury? The halo effect of winning the World Series only lasts so long and the Cardinals have already shown they are not necessarily loyalists, or better said, are not going to allow loyalty to cloud their decision making process. With Freese turning 30 in 2013 and Cox 24, who do you think the Cardinals will invest in if Freese is average?

On the other hand, if Freese is able to build on his previous production and play in a full season, it may allow the Cardinals the ability to deal one of the guys behind him. The Cards could buy out Freese’s arbitration eligible seasons and keep him for a little less than the free agent value and wait until Cox is completely ready to take over, or find another player to do so.

All of that being said, I played with the numbers a little bit to see what Freese would have to do in order to turn in a WAR of 5 for the season. There is nothing scientific about this estimation, nor am I suggesting this is where he will fall. However, the numbers are within his abilities. A WAR of 5 will be difficult for Mozeliak to ignore, and one which would show that Freese may be worth a three or four year investment. This is a what a 5 WAR season from Freese could look like using the simple WAR calculator.

You’ll note the biggest need here is games and plate appearances. The rest of the numbers more or less fall in line with his career averages. I gave him a few more home runs than he has averaged. I allowed for more walks than his career 7% rate (increased to 9.2%) and less strikeouts than his 21.1% career rate (lowered to 19.2%). These are not large stretches and my assumption is if he is able to play the full season his approach at the plate will get better. I actually lowered his career BABIP from his career average of .365. Sustaining that number is going to be very difficult. Keeping it in the .345 range is going to be hard enough. He is a decent defender and has average speed. For other standard stats, if he has proportional success to his career totals, we can expect about 96 RBI and 70 R and a BA close to .300.

The initial question was whether Freese can attain icon status in St. Louis. This may be hard to expect of a player who is already 29 years old and has zero full seasons under his belt. But, he is already a hero. Should Freese turn in the season above, or even better, he will present a tough decision for the front office. If it works in his favor and he is able to secure a long term deal, he may be able to put together three or four consecutive seasons of 4 – 5 WAR performance. That combined with the possibility of one more World Series run (let’s not get greedy) where he is once again a star, then he can at least cement himself in the discussion of great Cardinals players.

In this day and age, we have to be realistic when it comes to icon status. The Stan Musial types are not a part of this game any longer. We’ve learned that the hard way. But, players still have the ability to be heroes and entrench themselves in a team’s historical lore. David Freese is well on his way in that department.

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