2 Cardinals tumble on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list, Wetherholt graduates

Going into the 2026 season, the St. Louis Cardinals had the second-ranked farm system in all of baseball according to Baseball America, but they've likely slipped a bit in that ranking after their May update just went live. Top prospect, JJ Wetherholt, graduated from the list as expected and was the number three prospect in all of the sport, while outfielder Joshua Baez and Liam Doyle both fell down Baseball America's list to 57th and 61st, respectively.

The Cardinals' new top prospect should come as no shocker to those who have been following the system. Catcher Rainiel Rodriguez checks in as the 31st best prospect on Baseball America's list, as he maintains his ranking after a very strong start to the season for High-A Peoria. It would not be surprising at all to see Rodriguez shoot up the list over the next few months.

While seeing both Baez and Doyle fall on the list is not fun to see, there are legitimate reasons for their fall, and we are already seeing positive signs of growth that could see their ranking rebound in no time.

Both Joshua Baez and Liam Doyle are adjusting to the new levels they are at this year

Baez, who had jumped all the way up to 42nd overall during Baseball America's April update after not even being on the Cardinals' top 30 prospects prior to the 2025 season, has spent this season at the Triple-A level after a red-hot spring training that got many in the industry very excited about him.

In 2025, Baez's breakout campaign was fueled by major improvements in his strikeout percentage, which historically sat in the mid-30% range and coincided with poor contact rates across the board, but he was able to improve his K% to just 20.6% in 2025 and his contact percentage from 65% to 76%. Unfortunately, those strikeout concerns have returned thus far, as he's going down on strikes 33.3% of the time and making contact on just 65.1% of the pitches he swings at.

Now, as of late, he's been getting to more of his power and hitting for a higher average, slashing .310/.356/.667 with four home runs and six extra-base hits over his last 10 games, good for a 156 wRC+. He's still striking out over 30% of the time, so that's going to be something to monitor and an area he'll need to continue to adjust in if he wants to get the call to St. Louis this season.

Doyle, like Baez, has struggled in the box score to begin the year with his time in Double-A. On the season, Doyle has allowed 13 runs in 16 innings, striking out 18 batters while walking six and allowing a whopping 20 hits so far. Now, while no one is going to look at those numbers and throw a party, it's critical to understand that the Cardinals are asking Doyle to work on throwing his breaking balls more often and developing his arsenal, instead of leaning heavily on his elite fastball and plus splitter that could let him dominate minor league hitting.

Long-term, if Doyle is going to reach his ceiling as a potential front-line starter, he'll need to be able to rely on more than two pitches, so the Cardinals are letting him go through those growing pains at an aggressive level in Double-A, rather than having him try to breeze through hitters with his best stuff. Still, it has been rocky so far, so it makes sense that he dropped in the rankings.

Aidan Gray and Tyler Geninger (also known as Redbird Farmhands on X), who produce great content on Cardinals prospects for Cardinalsprospects.com and Dealin' the Cards, just put out a great video on the Dealin' the Cards channel tier ranking Cardinals prospects and their starts to the 2026 season. They went into great detail regarding Baez, Doyle, Rodriguez, and many others, and I highly recommend tuning in.

There are many reasons to be excited about the Cardinals' farm system right now, so I wouldn't spend much time worrying about these adjusted rankings. But it is worth following how both Doyle and Baez respond to their early struggles and whether or not they can overcome them.

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