2 Cardinals trade chips they'll regret holding onto, 1 they'll be thankful they did

The Cardinals will be thankful they held onto Ryan Helsley this offseason

This might not be a popular opinion, but assuming the offers aren't all that great for Ryan Helsley right now, it makes much more sense for the Cardinals to hold onto their closer until a later date.

There really isn't much precedent for trading a closer of Helsley's stature in the offseason and receiving a great return. The Devin Williams trade to the Yankees did not impress me all that much, and I strongly believe that if Helsley has a good season and stays healthy, they will receive something in return at the deadline that is worth the wait.

I get that Helsley is the best bullpen arm available right now, but frankly, most teams probably don't want to pay up what it should take to pry him away from St. Louis. There just isn't enough desperation this time of year for a closer. Teams would rather take their chances on lower-risk options and see if they can improve their bullpen.

Remember last offseason when the Cardinals traded Richie Palacios for Andrew Kittredge? Or selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 Draft? Those two ended up being huge assets for them and didn't require a major contract or prospect package.

Look at guys like Luke Weaver and Kirby Yates. Both were super low-risk moves and ended up being two of the best closers in baseball last year.

On the other hand, the Astros handed out a massive contract to Josh Hader, and while he wasn't bad last year, he definitely wasn't worth the mega-deal he got. If teams are going to go all in on a reliever, they are much more likely to at the trade deadline.

Remember when the Cubs traded one of the best prospects in baseball for Aroldis Chapman in 2016? Or the Padres taking a swing at Hader even with him struggling in 2022? San Diego acquired another high-level closer this past deadline in Tanner Scott. If a team knows they have the roster to make a run and their team is in the thick of the race in July, they are much more likely to give up the kind of assets the Cardinals would want at that time than they would right now.

Yes, there is injury risk with Helsley. Sure, he could have a bad year. Those would hurt his value. But I think the potential reward of holding him right now is likely worth it.

Even if the Cardinals are unable to move him at the deadline, barring a disaster next year, they can give Helsley the qualifying offer after the season and receive a draft pick in return for him. The Cardinals, if they are in the race, may choose to hold onto him anyway.

I personally don't have a problem with them holding Helsley right now, especially if the offers just aren't that great. I think they'll end up liking what happens by holding him into the season.