2 Cardinals trade chips they'll regret holding onto, 1 they'll be thankful they did

The Cardinals will regret not trading Erick Fedde

Out of all of the things that could make you scratch your head about the Cardinals' offseason, the one that really has me wondering what is going on with the front office is their decision it hold onto starter Erick Fedde.

Starting pitching is always at a premium, and this offseason is no exception. Nestor Cortes was the significant piece used to acquire Devin Williams in a trade this offseason. A bunch of free-agent contracts have been given out to starters less productive than Fedde and a much higher prices:

Sean Manaea - three years, $75 million,
Yusei Kikuchi - three years, $63 million
Luis Severino - three years, $67 million
Matthew Boyd - two years, $29 million
Frankie Montas - two years, $34 million
Charlie Morton - one year, $15 million

Meanwhile, Fedde is set to make just $7.5 million in 2025. It feels like a lot of Cardinals fans were underwhelmed by Fedde's performance after being acquired by the Cardinals, but the value he produced far exceeds what his contract is currently worth.

On the season, Fedde posted a 3.30 ERA in 177.1 innings of work. His 3.86 FIP points to him being a really nice middle-of-the-rotation starter, and that kind of player makes between $17m-$20m on the open market right now. After coming over to the Cardinals at the deadline, Fedde was not quite as sharp, but he still managed to post a 3.72 ERA in his 10 starts with St. Louis.

It has already been reported that two American League Central teams, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, have interest in Fedde, and I am sure there are other clubs around the league who would love to acquire him. It's up to the Cardinals to shop him, but it sounds like they want to hold onto him.

The only indication that we've had lately that the Cardinals would trade Fedde is if they are unable to move Arenado, and even so, they may just opt to dump Steven Matz's contract and still hold onto Fedde. Moving Fedde should not be mainly money-driven - the front office should see how moving the right-hander can help their retool beyond 2025.

Sure, keeping Fedde likely helps their chances of contention in 2025, but that shouldn't be the main priority. In fact, they've said themselves it is not. That doesn't mean they need to tank, but Fedde is more valuable as a trade asset to them than he is to their actual roster.

While the Cardinals could try and move him at the 2025 trade deadline or give him a qualifying offer to receive a draft pick after the season, it's a pretty risky proposition. Fedde could get hurt during the season or struggle on the mound and lose value. But if the Cardinals dealt him right now, they'd probably be looking at a pretty nice return.

I see a lot of risk in holding onto Fedde and not much reward. The Cardinals should deal him as soon as possible.