10 New Year's predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025

Prediction #4 Sonny Gray will compete for the 2025 NL Cy Young Award

Sonny Gray had to have one of the weirdest and most disappointing "good" seasons from a starting pitcher in recent memory. It probably has something to do with the fact that Gray was "the guy" in the rotation for St. Louis last year, but the way people talked about him would make you think he was terrible for the Cardinals.

In 28 starts, Gray went 13-9 with a 3.84 ERA. Not what people had in mind for their newly acquired front-line starter, but also not "bad" either. But when you look at different indicators for success among elite starting pitchers, it's kind of wild to see how good Gray was under the hood and how that should excite fans about what could be in 2025.

Here is how Gray ranked among qualified pitchers in some of the best stats for measuring how good a starter truly is:

3.12 FIP - 8th
2.82 xFIP - 2nd
3.03 SIERA - 3rd
1.09 WHIP - T-12th
30.3 K% - 3rd
5.8 BB% - 14th
24.4 K-BB% - 3rd

Gray was among the best in baseball at striking out hitters, limiting both hits and walks, and all of that caused those expected run-prevention numbers to be among the best in the league. So why did Gray not actually prevent runs at that level?

There were two main reasons why. First, Gray gave up home runs at an alarming rate last year, ranking 50th out of 58 qualified started in HR/FB rate (14.3%). Gray let the home run ball kill his outings too many times last year, and he needs to lower that a bit next year to help his outings.

Second, Gray had drastic home run splits in 2024. When Gray was at Busch Stadium, he posted a 2.79 ERA, which was actually the 12th-best home ERA for a starting pitcher last year among qualified pitchers. On the flip side, Gray had a 5.20 ERA on the road, which was 88th out of 94 pitchers who qualified there.

It would be one thing if Gray had always struggled on the road, but historically, Gray is actually better pitching away (3.39 ERA) than at home (3.61 ERA). If Gray can get back to his career norm when pitching in road games next year, he's going to find a ton of success.

Early projections have Gray slated to be one of the best pitchers in baseball next year for those very reasons. I'm not going to predict he will win the Cy Young or even finish in the top 3, but I do believe he'll get some votes next year with his performance.

Prediction #5 Chaim Bloom shakes up the front office even further, replacing multiple key voices from the John Mozeliak era

Something to watch as John Mozeliak finishes his tenure with the Cardinals this year and Chaim Bloom takes over is how many of the Cardinals' current front office group stay intact. Many of Mozeliak's core front office members have their contracts expiring following the 2025 season, so it's very possible Bloom moves on from any of them next winter.

It feels incredibly likely that Michael Girsch will be on his way out after the season, as he was already removed from his GM duties and made VP of Special Projects for this next year. We've seen Gary LaRoque and Matt Slater, both significant voices over the last number of years, move out of their positions as well. I'm not sure what the future holds for Randy Flores, Moises Rodriguez, and others in the Cardinals' front office, but I do think we'll see a few more shake-ups before the end of 2025.