Which St. Louis Cardinals could be top 100 players in 2025 according to fWAR?

Whenever someone makes a ranking of any sort, people are going to come from all directions to critique it.

FanGraphs recently put out their streamer projections for the 2025 season, and BrooksGate over on X (formerly known as Twitter) complied the fWAR projections for each player and ranked the top 100 players by projected fWAR for the 2025 season.

According to Streamer's projections, the Cardinals are slated to have two top 100 players in 2025 according to fWAR - Sonny Gray and Masyn Winn. Did those two names surprise you at all? Did you expect any other Cardinals to make the list?

This led me to my thought exercise. I wanted to break down this question into who I believe are surefire top 100 players by fWAR next year for the Cardinals, who are on the cusp, and who can break their way onto the list with major steps forward in performance.

For context, Jarren Duran, who finished number 100 on Streamer's projections, was slated for a 3.2 fWAR season in 2025. In 2024, the 100th most valuable player was about a 3.1 fWAR season.

The surefire picks

Sonny Gray (Streamer projection (3.7 fWAR)

I'm in full agreement with Streamer here that Sonny Gray will be a top 100 player in baseball in 2025. If you can believe it, Streamer actually has Gray set to accrue the 9th most fWAR among all starting pitchers next year, 10th if you count Shohei Ohtani.

Even in a "down" year last year, Gray was the 13th most valuable starter in baseball according to fWAR. That's in large part due to his FIP in 2024 ranking 7th in all of baseball (3.12 FIP) as opposed to his ERA that ranked 37th (3.84). Gray also missed a few starts due to injury last year, so if he makes a full 32 starts in 2024, that's even more opportunity to up his value.

Willson Contreras (Streamer projection: 2.4 fWAR)

In just 84 games last year, Willson Contreras posted a 140 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR. He was one of the very best hitters in all of baseball and would have received MVP votes had he stayed healthy.

Contreras' move to first base shouldn't hurt his value defensively all that much. He was mostly a below-average player at catcher anyway, and I think there is real reason to believe he'll be average or above average as a defensive first baseman in 2025.

But the reason Contreras will land on top 100 lists is because of the kind of output he can have offensively over a full season of play. That 140 wRC+ would have made him the 13th most productive hitter in all of baseball last year, and even if he can just land within 10 points of that, he'll smash his way onto that list.

Masyn Winn (Streamer projection: 3.8 fWAR)

I don't see why Masyn Winn wouldn't be one a top 100 player again in 2025 after posting top 100 fWAR as a rookie in 2025.

Yes, regression could come and knock Winn down a few pegs, but I'm willing to bet he matches or tops his 3.6 fWAR next season. Winn was a slightly above league-average hitter in his rookie season, and while he can build upon that to help his value, the way FanGraphs calculates WAR actually penalized Winn's defense compared to Baseball Reference that loved it. Winn can gain even more value by upping his fielding runs value in 2025.

Top 100 talent, but positional value probably knocks him out

Ryan Helsley (Streamer projection: 1.0 fWAR)

Position matters when it comes to WAR arguments. Ryan Helsley is a top 100 talent, but when ranking the top 100 players in baseball according to value, Helsley won't be challenging this list. Notably, not a single closer was projected to make the top 100. Last year, only Cade Smith and Griffin Jax posted top 50 fWAR among all pitchers in baseball, and that doesn't come close to the top 100 fWAR among all players.

Have the talent to be top 100, but they need to take a major step forward in 2025 to make the list

Jordan Walker (1.4 fWAR), Nolan Gorman (0.6 fWAR), Lars Nootbaar (2.7 fWAR), Ivan Herrera (2.4 fWAR), Brendan Donovan (2.6 fWAR), and Nolan Arenado (2.9 fWAR)

I know, listing nine players who could potentially be top 100 players for the Cardinals in 2025 is wild considering the state of the franchise. I'm not predicting there'll be nine players who occur top 100 fWAR in 2025. I'm simply giving you the names of players who have the potential to do so, although I'd be no more than five actually achieve it.

We saw the potential in Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman's bats in 2023. If they can rebound in 2025 at the plate and even improve defensively, there is a path toward big value gains here.

In the case of Ivan Herrera, the bat played in a big way last year, but he did not play enough to occur enough value and his defense was lacking. But 2.1 fWAR in 72 games is a real number, and if he's the Cardinals' primary catcher in 2025 and produces, look out.

Brendan Donovan just posted his best fWAR season of his career (3.2) while having his worst season offensively. If Donovan rebounds with the bat a little next year, again, he's a sneaky candidate to post top 100 value.

And lastly, Nolan Arenado will likely be somewhere else next year, but for now, he is a Cardinal. Arenado was a 3.1fWAR player last year while taking a major step back offensively. If he rebounds a bit at the plate and doesn't see regression defensively, again, he could be a top-100 player.

Lots of "ifs" on this part of the list, and there are a lot of MLB teams who have multiple players in this category as well.

Who do you think puts up top 100 value for the Cardinals in 2025?