Why it's highly doubtful that Nolan Arenado is with the Cardinals next season

No one likes a lengthy breakup, and the St. Louis Cardinals have been trying to finalize theirs with Nolan Arenado for over a year now.

John Mozeliak thought he had Arenado set up with a new home before he rejected the deal to the Houston Astros. Then both sides anxiously awaited the potential of a move to the Boston Red Sox. When they signed Alex Bregman instead, the Cardinals and Arenado were stuck for at least one more season together.

That can't happen again in 2026, and I don't envision Chaim Bloom, nor Arenado, allowing that to happen either.

The Cardinals will find a suitor for Nolan Arenado, no matter what it takes

Let's face the facts: there's a reason a trade has not happened yet. Arenado is not Plan A, B, or likely even C for most teams this offseason. The Cardinals and Arenado have to wait for much of the market to move, and then see if a team wants to pivot to acquiring him. Hopefully, there's a team out there that wants to be on Arenado as their starting third baseman, but he honestly may need to accept a lesser role and hopefully prove he's still an impact player in order to find a suitor.

For the Cardinals, this trade is likely to look more like the Dexter Fowler trade from years ago, where St. Louis ate 87% of his contract in order to send him to the Los Angeles Angels, in return for a player to be named later or cash considerations. The Cardinals basically agreed to just move Fowler off of their roster, freeing up a little money but mostly just ending their partnership with the regressing outfielder.

Bloom has been very open about the fact that it would be best for both sides if they moved on, and I don't think he would hold that stance publicly if both he and ownership weren't willing to back it up privately. The Cardinals know what this situation is; they never expected to get some nice return for Arenado or save a bunch of money this offseason from dealing him. Any money saved is a net positive for the Cardinals, and any return, or even no return, allows them to move forward in their rebuild.

I've seen, especially as fans are getting angsty about the lack of movement, speculation that the Cardinals may be "stuck" with Arenado again. Look, they might not be able to get a favorable deal at this rate where they save a decent chunk of change, but I have a very hard time believing that there won't be a single team out there that Arenado is interested in going to that he won't take him with the Cardinals eating most of the contract. The risk would be minimal for teams, and there would be upside that exceeds the low financial commitment they'd be making.

And for St. Louis, ensuring an open infield for JJ Wetherholt to enter into is paramount, and any money they save on Arenado's deal is money they no longer have to pay, so I don't see why they wouldn't do whatever it takes to move him. Let's hope there's more of a market than that, but even if it comes down to this "worst case scenario", I think the DeWitt family would give Bloom the green light.

That's why I believe it's highly unlikely that Arenado is a Cardinal for the 2026 season, and I don't think fans need to be anxious about him returning.