The Cardinals' runway for Jordan Walker in 2025 is not infinite, but it is necessary

All offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals were adamant that Jordan Walker needed to play every day in 2025. Walker getting 600+ plate appearances was not just a hope, but an expectation.

Now, I think most Cardinals fans had a hard time taking the organization at their word, and rightfully so. Not only had they never truly given struggling young players and prospects that extended of a runway, but they also started to hint at the idea that they may want to contend this year. Both things could happen at the same time, but if the team was thriving but Walker was struggling, which priority would win the day?

Well, here we are, it's the end of May, and with the Cardinals riding high and above .500, they have to wrestle with whether they allow a floundering Walker time to figure things out.

Let's be honest, it has been a brutal year at the plate for Walker. While we have seen noticeable improvements defensively, which are worth celebrating, his play at the plate has to get better. On the season, Walker is slashing .194/.257/.281 (.537 OPS) with a 31.6% strikeout rate and 53 wRC+. For context, among the 267 players who have had at least 100 plate appearances this year, Walker ranks 241st in BA, 253rd in SLG, 254th in OPS, 256th in K%, and 257th in wRC+.

To put this into perspective further, if Walker's current production stretched out over 300 or so plate appearances, out of all of the individual seasons that have qualified for leaderboards since 1900, Walker's 53 wRC+ would rank tied for 23,118 out of those 23,571 qualified hitters, the bottom 2% of qualifed hitters seasons in the last 125 years.

Yeah, this is really bad.

Even so, I don't think now is the right time to put an end to the runway the Cardinals stated they wanted to give Walker, but with just how bad he has been so far, I do think it's fair to start looking at when that runway could end, if he is not able to stabilize things a bit.

Jordan Walker's runway is necessary, but there are scenarios where it makes sense for the Cardinals to end it.

Look, I don't think Walker needs to turn into a force at the plate to resecure his runway. In fact, if he is like 20% below league average the rest of the season, I think there is merit for him being on the roster. But when Walker is 47% worse than the league-average hitter right now, that's just not acceptable.

Some people would complain about the Cardinals "backing off" their stance from the offseason, but frankly, I don't think it's wrong for them to back off those comments if he is performing this poorly when the middle of June rolls around. I didn't need John Mozeliak to come out this offseason and say, "Jordan Walker will get 600 plate appearances this year unless he is historically bad at the plate." The runway, I believe, they want to give Walker is pretty long, but it's not infinite. At some point, he's got to show something.

Mozeliak knows this, but I also think he is wisely remaining patient with Walker, for now. In Katie Woo's piece over on The Athletic, Mozeliak reflected on that tension they are facing right now.

“Right now, we’re trying to straddle that fence,” Mozeliak said in a recent interview with The Athletic. “By mid-June, there might be a fork in the road for us, but at this point we can at least provide ourselves that opportunity to try (to do both).”

Right now, the Cardinals are winning games in spite of Walker's terrible form at the plate. But if the club remains in the playoff hunt and Walker remains this bad, it would make sense for them to hit the reset button with him again.

For those who believe that runway should end already, I do want to pump the brakes on that line of thinking. While I don't think the Cardinals would be wrong to back off the runway for Walker if his struggles remain this drastic in the summer, I do think ending the runway now would be counter to what they hoped would happen this year.

In the past, the Cardinals have been quick to pull the plug on certain young talent and replace them with veterans or players who are performing better, leading to stunted development, and some of those players going on to be successful elsewhere. In the case of Walker, his first two big league seasons have seen him experience a demotion to Memphis at the end of April, a very short leash for someone who they wanted to be a part of their core moving forward.

Both times, Walker's struggles on the field justified demotions. But the problem was the Cardinals gave up quickly on the young man trying to find his way at the big league level, and that's not typically the best path toward success for a prospect with the pedigree of Walker.

By no means and I saying these are the exact same situations, but the Milwaukee Brewers faced a similar conundrum last year when top prospect Jackson Chourio was struggling at the big league level. At the end of May, Chourio was sporting a .210/.254/.327 slash line (.581 OPS) and 61 wRC+. With a longer runway than Walker has ever had in a big league season, Chourio was struggling badly like Walker was, but instead of pulling the plug, the Brewers continued to ride things out with Chourio, and he eventually hit his stride.

The Brewers were pretty open about how bad things had gotten with Chourio, but they remained committed to him anyway. Chourio rewarded their confidence in him by slashing .303/.358/.525 the rest of the season, going from essentially 40% below league average to start the year to 40% above league average the rest of the way.

No, no, no. I am not saying Walker will have a turnaround like that, nor do I really think that is in him. Honestly, if Walker can even turn things around enough to be league average the rest of the season, that would be a huge win. But my point here is that there is precedent, and Chourio is not the only case for young players to start about as badly as Walker has and then figure things out later in the year.

Yes, Walker is in his third crack at the big leagues now, and Chourio was just a rookie. It is different. But the point is not their trajectories as players; it is the runway they were allowed. The Brewers were extremely patient with Chourio, whereas the Cardinals were impatient with Walker the last two seasons.

Remember, Walker just turned 23 years old. For context, prospects like Dalton Rushing, Matt Shaw, Drake Baldwin, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Teel, Coby Mayo, Cade Horton, and Jacob Wilson are all the same age as Walker or older and have yet to make it to the major leagues. Walker has played in 209 big league games already and amassed 795 plate appearances. That is not normal for a player who is just two days past his 23rd birthday.

And for more perspective, there have been many players who had just as many or more plate appearances as Walker has so far in his career at age 23, performed the same or worse than him, and went on to have successful careers. Walker's career 94 wRC+ by his 23rd birthday is higher than Ivan Rodriguez, Melky Cabrera, Tim McCarver, Edgar Renteria, Robin Yount, Carl Crawford, Roberto Clemente, Jose Reyes, Sammy Sosa, Curt Flood, Brooks Robinson, and other players who would end up being All-Stars or Hall of Famers.

No, once again, I am not saying Walker will be one of those guys, but to say we for sure know he won't become a successful big leaguer is just not true. There is still plenty of time for Walker to get his career on track, and the Cardinals would be wise not to throw in the towel just yet.

So, to make a long story short, yes, the Cardinals are right to continue giving Walker this runway. He has far too much potential to just give up on as a 23-year-old. But, at the same time, if he is as bad at the plate as he is right now for another month or so, another trip to Triple-A may be needed, and they won't be wrong for making that call.