Welcome to the Upside Down: Inside the Cardinals’ 2026 pitching rotation

I love Stranger Things. My whole family does — and hopefully you do too. In many ways, the pitching options the St. Louis Cardinals are bringing into the 2026 season feel a lot like the show’s final season: uneven, ambitious, occasionally frustrating, and still capable of some genuinely great moments.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved the finale of Stranger Things. The epilogue of the last episode got me misty-eyed more than once. But as a full season of television, it struggled at times. The plot drove everything in a way it hadn’t before. The cast ballooned to a size that made it difficult to give everyone meaningful moments. And if you squint just a little, that’s exactly where the Cardinals' pitching rotation finds itself.

Chaim Bloom has done some serious reclamation work this offseason. Gone are the days of relying on veteran innings-eaters just to survive the year. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, we appreciate your service — truly — but I’m relieved this is no longer the plan. Miles Mikolas, goodbye. That’s all.

By my count, the Cardinals have six or seven (yes, yes, go ahead and roll your eyes) legitimate options to start games. They may even experiment with a six-man rotation. But the cast is crowded, the franchise’s direction is clearly shifting, and not everyone is going to fit. So how secure are these arms, really?

Let’s break it down — Stranger Things style.

The Upside Down — Long Shots

Quinn Mathews is exciting. He’s the vanguard of a tidal wave of strikeout-heavy arms currently stacked in the Cardinals’ minor leagues. That wave is coming to St. Louis over the next one to three years, whether the organization is ready or not, and when it hits, it’s going to wash away several familiar names. That wave may hit as hard as the demo-dogs hit Bob Newby. Ouch.

The issue with Mathews is timing. He hasn’t been up yet, meaning his service clock hasn’t started, and he battled control issues at Triple-A last season. The talent is obvious. The opportunity may not be — at least not immediately.

Kyle Leahy fits here too, but with a slightly different outlook. With the number of arms ahead of him and his effectiveness in shorter stints, it makes more sense for the Cardinals to deploy him again as a multi-inning bullpen weapon rather than force him into the rotation mix.

These are the pitchers trying to survive in the Upside Down. One misstep, and they’re gone.

On the Bike Path — Probably In, but One Crash Away

Oh, Andre Pallante. What do we do with you?

He’s a groundball machine. He was last year. In fact, his underlying numbers from 2025 aren’t dramatically different from his 2024 season, when he was — by most measures — pretty good. (Seriously, go look.)

From a purely rational standpoint, Pallante is the most experienced starter the Cardinals currently have. He’s the Hopper “old head” of this group, and that probably earns him another look in the rotation.

But my heart doesn’t want it. At all. I don’t know if I can watch it again.

That uncertainty also applies to the two newcomers from Boston: Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins.

Fitts is 26, posted solid strikeout numbers in the minors, and struggled in his first extended taste of the majors. The home run bug bit him hard — harder, frankly, than the Stranger Things fanbase reacted to the infamous Season Two Kali (Eight) episode. Still, there are Lance Lynn–like qualities here, and if the Cardinals’ pitching infrastructure can help him refine his approach, there’s something usable.

Dobbins is intriguing in a different way. He missed time last year after knee surgery following an awkward play at first base, but he’s back throwing this offseason. In his brief major league exposure, he ran a 3.87 FIP and showed consistent strikeout ability throughout the minors. This is the type of arm the Cardinals are now prioritizing — and the clearest evidence that the Gibson-and-Lynn era is truly over.

These guys are riding the bike path. Most nights, they’ll stay upright. One bad stretch, though, and it could all change quickly.

In the Wheeler Basement — Safely in the Rotation

Confession time: I don’t really like Mike Wheeler as a character. Maybe that’s not a hot take. I’m a Dustin guy, through and through.

I feel similarly about Michael McGreevy.

To me, McGreevy is a younger Miles Mikolas — which, unfortunately, makes Mikolas the Henry Creel of the Cardinals’ last few seasons. There’s very little strikeout punch here. His success is almost entirely dependent on contact management and batted-ball luck, which is fickle on the best of days. He’s going to have good starts and bad ones, often without much in between.

That said, this is precisely why the Cardinals trust him. He takes the ball, throws strikes, and gives them innings. In a young, volatile staff, that alone carries real value — even if it doesn’t excite me.

The two safest bets, though, are Dustin May and Matthew Liberatore.

Liberatore’s 2025 season was a roller coaster: hot start, prolonged struggles, and a strong finish. Bloom clearly believes in him, and there’s reason to think the adjustments he made late can stick. He’s not a finished product, but there’s a real path forward here.

May is the most intriguing arm on the staff. Beyond the elite hair, if he can fully rebound from a bizarre esophagus injury and keep his elbow healthy, he has shown true front-end stuff in the past. He’s still relatively young and has regained much of the weight he lost during recovery. No, he’s probably not getting Cy Young votes — but the upside is undeniable.

This is the basement. It’s not glamorous, but it’s safe.

My Five on Opening Day

I love Quinn Mathews, and his moment will come — just not yet. I’d keep Leahy in the bullpen, and I’d send Pallante there as well as a swingman.

If you’re keeping score at home, my Opening Day rotation would be Dustin May, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins.

Like Stranger Things Season Five, it won’t always be clean. There will be frustrating episodes. But there’s real growth potential here — and the possibility of some special moments along the way.

In a season that’s almost certainly going to feel upside down, betting on development, volatility, and upside may be the most honest direction the Cardinals can take.