Weird free agent market could allow Cardinals to make creative splash move

We all knew the St. Louis Cardinals would not be major players this offseason when it came to acquiring high-end major league talent through free agency or the trade market, but the possibility has lingered for them to be a dark-horse team for starting pitchers that don't get what they are looking for this winter.

Before the offseason truly got into motion, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat came on the Dealin' the Cards podcast and mentioned that he would not be surprised to see St. Louis be the landing spot for a top free agent arm if they don't get the long-term deal they are looking for. He specifically mentioned Framber Valdez as an arm he would not be shocked to see the Cardinals end up with for something like one year, $28 million.

Well, here we are on January 23rd, and Valdez is still floating out there without a long-term deal. Sure, there is still time for a team like the Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, or some other contender to come out and make a deal with Valdez, but as spring training draws closer and closer, the possibility for someone like Valdez or other top free agent arms to sign a pillow contract does increase.

Should the Cardinals be ready to pounce if the opportunity presents itself?

The Cardinals could consider signing a top free agent starter to a pillow contract, but there are reasons why it may not make sense right now beyond the finances.

Before a declaration on whether the Cardinals should offer someone like Valdez or Zac Gallen a one-year deal, let's look at what the implications of a deal would mean for St. Louis.

There's obvious upside with going after Valdez or Gallen on a one-year deal. There's no long-term commitment for the Cardinals to worry about financially, and even with all of the money they have sent in trades this offseason, they still are running a projected payroll of just $104 million, far below what they have in the past.

If all goes according to plan, the Cardinals could then flip that arm at the trade deadline for a strong package of prospects. The Giants got Blake Snell on one of these pillow deals back in 2024, but foolishly held onto him after he was on fire for them. Bloom would not make that same mistake. If Valdez or Gallen were dealing in the first half of the season on the mound, the Cardinals would be auctioning them off to the highest bidder.

There is risk involved here beyond the financial ramifications. With Valdez and Gallen both being extended the qualifying offer this offseason, the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the 2026 MLB Draft alongside that subsequent bonus pool money. In the past, the Cardinals would have had to give up their second-highest pick due to CBA regulations, but now, as a revenue-sharing team, they would just have to give up their third-highest selection.

In a vacuum, that would make this a bit easier to stomach, especially considering St. Louis gave up second-round picks to sign both Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. Third-round picks are valuable, but they are easier to part ways with. Well, the Cardinals were actually granted a Competitive Balance Round A pick this year that is projected to fall around the 32nd overall pick, which means St. Louis's third selection in the 2026 MLB Draft is actually their second-round pick this year, which is the 50th overall pick.

As a rebuilding team, having the 13th, 32nd, and 50th overall picks is huge for stockpiling assets and getting this team back to contention in the future. In order for the Cardinals to be able to stomach giving up the 50th overall pick this year and the bonus pool money associated with that, they need to be confident that the return they could get in a Valdez or Gallen trade would exceed what they value that pick at.

Could that be the case? For sure. If Valdez or Gallen is signed by the Cardinals and is great through the month of July, contenders will surely be calling, but we all know that injuries or down years could easily hinder that performance. Also, players can only receive the qualifying offer once in their careers, so the Cardinals wouldn't have the fallback option of extending a qualifying offer after the season if they weren't able to find a good trade.

Personally, given the state of the Cardinals' rebuild, I would shy away from signing a Valdez or Gallen on a pillow contract, but I would recommend the Cardinals keep their eyes open to similar options.

Arms like Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, and other arms with talent and established track records are still available as well and do not have the qualifying offer attached to them. It is far more likely that Valdez or Gallen would have better years and fetch more at the deadline, but if one of those names were willing to come to St. Louis on a one-year deal and pitched well this year, they could net the Cardinals a good trade return and allow them to keep the 50th overall pick.

For context, Payton Tolle, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, was selected 50th overall in 2024. Brandon Sproat, one of the headliners in the recent Freddy Peralta trade, was selected 56th overall in 2023. Jacob Misiorowski, Drew Thorpe, Parker Messick, and Carsen Whisenhunt were all selected just after the 50th overall selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, and Chaim Bloom snagged Roman Anthony with the 79th overall pick that year.

Obviously, you're not guaranteed to hit on a pick in that range, but having as much draft capital as you can in the first few rounds of the draft gives front offices more chances to hit on high-end young talent that can help transform a franchise's future. Given where the Cardinals are today, I'd rather they hold onto the 50th overall pick and target a pitcher without a qualifying offer than roll the dice with one who does.

We'll see if the Cardinals get serious about someone like Valdez or Gallen if their markets don't develop. My guess is no, but if the price is right and they truly believe they can get more value than what the 50th selection means for them, they could certainly do it. I just think I'd rather roll the dice with someone like Giolito, hope to get a nice return for him, and still make a selection with that 50th pick.