Updated MLB Draft Lottery odds as Cardinals fall further out of contention

The St. Louis Cardinals have tumbled their way out of the playoff race, and while they are technically not eliminated yet, FanGraphs currently has their odds to make the postseason at zero percent.

That does mean there's a different race Cardinals fans should be paying close attention to as the season winds down, and that is the MLB Draft Lottery odds.

For years now, MLB has changed its system to adopt a lottery format. No longer do teams just pick based on their record, each team that doesn't make the postseason is up for the draft lottery (outside of a few exceptions) that can determine where they select in next year's draft.

Where exactly do the Cardinals stand right now? Let's check it out!

Updated MLB Draft Lottery Odds for Cardinals as of September 17th

Here are the MLB Draft Lottery odds prior to games on September 17th according to Tankathon.

You may have been wondering why the Giants have the 10th-best odds despite their poor record. Per lottery rules, three teams are unable to select in the top ten of this year's MLB Draft: the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, and San Francisco Giants. As things currently stand, the only team that is impacted is the Giants, whose 64-89 record would have given them the fourth-best odds if they were eligible for the lottery.

The Cardinals are currently slated to have the 13th-best odds in the draft lottery, which gives them a 10.5% chance of picking in the top six and a 1.05% chance of getting the number one overall pick. With just nine games left though, the Cardinals could boost their odds if they keep losing ballgames.

They currently have the same record as the Baltimore Orioles, who have the 12th-best odds, and are three games up on the Detroit Tigers for the 11th-best odds. It's possible the Cardinals could fall below both of those teams in the standings, and hypothetically, the Cardinals could get all the way up to the sixth-best odds if the Mariners, Twins, Reds, and Nationals keep winning down the stretch. I doubt all of that happens, so the Cardinals will likely have somewhere between the ninth and 15th-best odds when it's all said and done.

The Pirates are 75-77 right now, so they could easily pass the Cardinals for higher odds, as could the Miami Marlins, who are 76-77.

Getting higher lottery odds can only help the Cardinals cause, but as they wrap up these final games, I'm sure the front office cares more about seeing their young players succeed than to see them fail and that's why they lose games. I guess the "best-case scenario" is if the Cardinals see their core young players produce well down the stretch, and guys who aren't a part of their future contribute heavily toward losses.

We'll continue to monitor the Cardinals lottery odds as the season winds down, as the 2027 MLB Draft is slated to be a loaded group and will give the Cardinals yet another opportunity to add premier talent to arguably the best farm system in the game.

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