The St. Louis Cardinals, for all of their recent faults, have been among the best in the league at one thing in the last decade: drafting players. Thanks to the magic touch of Randy Flores, the players drafted by the Cardinals have consistently outperformed their draft slot.
BrooksGate, an account on X (formerly known as Twitter), posted the total amount of fWAR accumulated by a team's draft picks since 2014. Unsurprisingly, the Houston Astros lead the pack with a total of 110.4 fWAR from players drafted by them since 2014. Players like Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker lead the pack for the Astros in this regard.
Surprisingly enough, the St. Louis Cardinals have the second-most fWAR from players drafted by the organization since 2014. Their total sits at 92.8 fWAR. Players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Lars Nootbaar have led the pack in fWAR for the team.
The Cleveland Guardians (83 fWAR), Baltimore Orioles (76.5 fWAR), and Los Angeles Dodgers (76.5 fWAR) round out the top five teams.
The St. Louis Cardinals have done exceptionally well with drafting despite not being in the top half of the MLB draft in many years.
The last time the Cardinals drafted in the top 10 prior to 2024 was in 1998. The highest draft pick they've had since 2014 was when they selected Michael McGreevy 18th overall in 2021. Their average draft pick since 2014 was 20th overall, which places them in the last third of all teams drafting in the first round.
To have this high of production out of players when drafting this late is impressive, and it's a testament to Flores's work these last few years. Beyond first-round successes like Luke Weaver, Nolan Gorman, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Walker, Flores has found gems like Jordan Hicks in the third round, Masyn Winn in the second round, Ryan Helsley in the fifth round, and Paul DeJong and Andre Pallante in the fourth round.
The issue with these successful drafts is that not every player has racked up these stats with the Cardinals.
The club's poor trade history of late is evidence of this. The primary culprit in this instance would be the trade that brought outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals for Sandy Alcantara, Maneuris Sierra, Zac Gallen, and Daniel Castano. Alcantara and Gallen alone have accumulated 16.5 fWAR each -- the fact that they're tied in fWAR since starting their careers was fascinating to me.
Alcantara wasn't technically drafted by the Cardinals, as he was an international free agent. The same can be said for Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia. I'm not sure if this list includes international free agents.
Lane Thomas, Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, and Harrison Bader to an extent all had ample success outside of St. Louis.
The Cardinals' brain trust of the late 2000's and early 2010's was (and still is) the best in the business.
Jeff Luhnow was hired by Bill DeWitt Jr. in 2003 to be a part of the organization's scouting department. His hiring led to initial skepticism, as Luhnow didn't have a background in baseball. He was elevated to vice president of scouting and player development in 2006, and Luhnow's work in these departments was one of the reasons the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011.
Luhnow was then hired by the Houston Astros to be their general manager in December of 2011. After many years of putrid performance and miserable win-loss records, the Houston Astros were able to reap the benefits of several top draft picks including Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. Luhnow was instrumental in Houston's success in this department.
Sig Mejdal joined the Cardinals in 2005 to be a part of the organization's new analytics department. Mejdal, unlike Luhnow, had a background in college baseball scouting and analytics. His personality also wasn't as divisive as Luhnow's was. Mejdal would become the club's director of the amateur draft in 2011.
From 2005-2012, the Cardinals had the most players drafted become major leaguers than any other team. That's a testament to Mejdal and Luhnow's work.
Mejdal joined Luhnow in Houston in 2012, and these two left the Cardinals' drafting and development team in a bit of a state of disarray. Eventually, Mejdal would join the Baltimore Orioles as their Vice President and Assistant General Manager of Analytics. The Orioles went from a 100-loss team to one that was vying for American League East Championships by 2023.
Jeff Luhnow and Sig Mejdal were instrumental in leading the St. Louis Cardinals' analytics department in the late 2000's and early 2010's. They both then went on to find success in other organizations.
What this list of drafted players and WAR totals should tell us as Cardinal fans is that the organization's brain trust of this era is still seeing ample success, and the Cardinals were -- and still are -- one of the best organizations at identifying, drafting, and developing major-league player.