This longtime Cardinals weakness has been an overlooked part of their downfall

St. Louis Cardinals fans all know the story of the hapless front office falling far behind the times with pitching development, trusting that their pitch-to-contact approach would still hold water in the modern game. When the topic is broached of what has gone wrong for the Cardinals over the past few seasons, that will generally place near the top of the list. However, there is a less talked-about aspect of the team that has been a recurring problem throughout the years.

The Cardinals have struggled to acquire and develop consistent outfield production for the past decade.

The Cardinals deserve all the blame for missing the boat on strikeouts becoming a necessity in the sport, but their issues with trading for and producing outfield talent are less about a faulty process and more about the moves simply not shaking out as hoped.

The untimely death of top prospect Oscar Taveras may have been the inciting event to all of the Cardinals' future outfield woes. In 2014, Taveras was MLB Pipeline's third-ranked prospect in all of baseball and looked like he would be a pillar in the team's next run of contention. However, his death forced the Cardinals to make a drastic pivot to fill a sudden gap in their lineup.

The Cardinals swung a deal with the Atlanta Braves in November 2014 to acquire outfielder Jason Heyward, who was on the last year of his contract. He had a strong season in St. Louis, hitting .293 with a .797 OPS, but the Cardinals were unable to lock him up long term, as he decided to sign with the Chicago Cubs for 2016.

As they geared up for the 2017 season, the Cardinals dived into the free agent market and signed Dexter Fowler. After a respectable first year with the Cardinals, Fowler had a miserable 2018 and was reported as not speaking with the Cardinals' manager, Mike Matheny, at the time. From 2018 to 2020 with the Cardinals, Fowler had a .218 average and an OPS+ of 86, falling far short of expectations that the team and fans had for him.

The last major trade the Cardinals carried out in an attempt to find a proven major league asset in the outfield was the ill-fated deal with the Miami Marlins in December 2017 for Marcell Ozuna, whom the Cardinals acquired by giving up eventual aces Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, among other pieces. The Cardinals originally had a deal in place with the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but Stanton used his no-trade clause to spurn the Cardinals' offer. Ozuna wasn't bad for the Cardinals on offense, hitting .262 in his two seasons with a 107 OPS+, but it was a far cry from his All-Star performance with the Marlins in 2017, and the former Gold Glove winner's defense regressed massively.

Heyward, Fowler and Ozuna were intended to be quick fixes to the Cardinals' outfield, but the long-term solutions were supposed to emerge from within the organization. How'd those prospects turn out? Let's look at their careers in St. Louis.

Randal Grichuk: Famously drafted in the first round by the Los Angeles Angels one spot ahead of Mike Trout, Grichuk hit well in his first full season in 2015, owning a .276 average and an .877 OPS. Named the Cardinals' starting center fielder in 2016, Grichuk backslid, hitting .240 with a .769 OPS and shuttling between St. Louis and Triple-A Memphis several times throughout the season. He regressed further in 2017, owning a .238 average and a .758 OPS, and the Cardinals traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for relief pitcher Dominic Leone and pitching prospect Conner Greene. In his Cardinals career, Grichuk hit .249 and had 66 home runs from 2014 through 2017.

Stephen Piscotty: The Cardinals' top-ranked prospect in 2015 according to MLB Pipeline, Piscotty debuted with the Cardinals in July of that year and hit an impressive .305 with an OPS of .853. He tied for sixth in Rookie of the Year voting. After a 2016 season that saw Piscotty hit 22 home runs as the Cardinals' starting right fielder, the team rewarded him with a six-year contract extension worth $33.75 million. It didn't work out, as Piscotty hit just .235 in 2017 and held a .708 OPS. At Piscotty's request, the Cardinals traded him to the Oakland Athletics following the season so he could be closer to his mother, who was suffering from ALS.

Harrison Bader: Bader was a speedy, glove-first outfielder who the Cardinals hoped could become a strong enough hitter to sustain an everyday center fielder job. He had decent years at the plate in 2018 and 2021, hitting .264 and .267, respectively, and he won a Gold Glove in 2021, leading all center fielders in several defensive categories. The Cardinals signed him to a two-year contract at the start of the 2022 season, but they traded him to the New York Yankees at the deadline for Jordan Montgomery, as the Cardinals believed they had plenty of outfield talent and were looking for someone to shore up their rotation for a playoff run.

Tyler O'Neill: The Cardinals acquired O'Neill as a minor league outfielder from the Seattle Mariners for pitcher Marco Gonzales at the trade deadline in 2017, and injuries nagged at his throughout his time in St. Louis. He stayed healthy and put everything together in 2021, where he had a .912 OPS and 34 home runs while finishing eighth in MVP voting. The Cardinals continued to chase that production, but he again succumbed to injuries as well as criticism from manager Oli Marmol for a perceived lack of hustle on the basepaths. The Cardinals finally gave up the ghost and traded O'Neill at the bottom of his value, as he went to the Boston Red Sox after the 2023 season for pitchers Victor Santos and Nick Robertson.

Dylan Carlson: Much of the reason the Cardinals traded Bader was because they believed Carlson was their center fielder of the future. A full rookie season (following the COVID-shortened 2020 season) that saw him club 18 home runs and hold a .780 OPS earned him a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting and seemed to portend plenty of success in the coming seasons. Unfortunately, Carlson hit just eight home runs in 2022 and fell to a .695 OPS, and his 2023 was a disaster, as he owned an OPS of .651. The Cardinals traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays for relief pitcher Shawn Armstrong at the 2024 deadline, when Carlson was hitting just .198.

Although his career has just begun, Jordan Walker has followed the now-familiar refrain of a solid rookie campaign followed by mediocre to poor results in his next seasons, and alarm bells are ringing regarding failure on both the Cardinals' side and Walker's for his lapsed development.

Of the quintet of players whose time with the team has concluded, Bader probably had the best Cardinals career, but even he never became a player whom the Cardinals could build around. But more frustrating are the outfielders from the Cardinals' system who got away. Randy Arozarena was provided scant opportunities in St. Louis and has gone on to have five consecutive 20-home run, 20-steal seasons — a milestone no Cardinal has ever reached. They also cut bait with Adolis Garcia, who hit 39 home runs with the Texas Rangers in their 2023 championship season.

It was clear at the back end of John Mozeliak's tenure that he was hesitant to carry out moves for fear of getting his pocket picked again, and the Cardinals are in dire need of new blood. Chaim Bloom's impending takeover of the team will hopefully get the Cardinals on the right track in their ability to identify and develop talent in the outfield and have a better sense of which players to trade and when to execute those moves so the Cardinals can receive the best return.

Pitching is deservedly front and center of the Cardinals' woes, but neither fans nor the team can discount the disappointing production from the outfield year after year, including in seasons where the team supposedly had plenty of young talent ready to contribute at the major league level. Here's hoping that Bloom can usher in a new wellspring of outfielders ready to turn the organization's fortunes around.