This Cardinals pitcher has been curiously immune to a nearly universal trend

The starting pitching of the St. Louis Cardinals has been a sticking point throughout 2025. Their starters rank 21st in the league in team ERA, at 4.30, and their longtime pitch-to-contact mantra has placed them second from the bottom in strikeout rate, at 7.53 K's per nine innings. One of the poster children for President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak's longtime thirst for pitchers who elicit weak contact is Michael McGreevy, whom the Cardinals grabbed in the first round of the 2021 draft.

Although strikeouts aren't McGreevy's bread and butter — his strikeout rate of 5.55 per nine innings places him fourth-lowest among starters with at least 80 innings pitched — he has been among the most reliable starters for the Cardinals this season, and part of that is due to a strange quirk that few other pitchers exhibit.

McGreevy pitches more effectively after multiple turns through the batting order.

Starting pitchers have quicker hooks than ever these days, and the risk of pitching to hitters a third time is well documented as hitters get a better idea of what the pitcher will throw. The stats back it up: Batters throughout the league have a .707 OPS against starters in their first plate appearances against them, a .729 OPS in the second go-around, and a .758 OPS if they face that starter a third time.

McGreevy, however, bucks this trend. In opponents' first plate appearances, they've hit an unsightly .839 OPS and hold a .316 average against him. However, the next time through the order, batters have hit .273 with a .726 OPS. The third time is when McGreevy really bears down, as batters have hit just .221 with a .576 OPS.

It appears that McGreevy adjusts his approach as the game goes on: First-time batters have struck out 17 times in 126 plate appearances against him, and in their second plate appearances, they've struck out only nine times in 126 PAs. But McGreevy seems to empty the tank when it comes to the third time through the order, as he's struck out 22 of 83 batters who dig in for a third showdown.

The pattern suggests that McGreevy can strike guys out if needed but that he prefers to preserve his energy by pitching to contact earlier in the game. It's a risky approach to take in the modern sport, and he has paid the price at times, as illustrated by batters' inflated stats against him in their first time facing him in a game.

McGreevy shone in his latest start, going seven innings and allowing only three hits and no runs, and with the Cardinals sorely lacking starting pitchers for 2026, McGreevy should be penciled into next season's rotation. If he can replicate this odd type of success that he's shown this year, he could prove to be a valuable commodity for a team that desperately needs one.