The number-one obstacle to the St. Louis Cardinals' playoff hopes in 2025

Almost no one expected the St. Louis Cardinals to be as competitive as they are so far in 2025. But even with how good they look on the field thus far, there is still one major obstacle standing in their way.

And it is one that is completely out of their control.

The absolute gaunlet that the National League is this season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and Philadelphia Phillies all lead their respective divisions at the moment and remain the favorites to finish the year on top of those standings. The New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres all hold the current National League Wild Card spots. The Cardinals, sitting with a record of 30-24, are three games back of the Central division and a half game back of the third Wild Card. The Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, and Atlanta Braves are all within four games of the Cardinals in the standings.

It's going to be a bloodbath to qualify for a playoff spot in the National League this year.

The greatest obstacle to the Cardinals' playoff hopes in 2025 is the number of teams fighting for a playoff spot.

By my count, there are 11 teams in the National League with a legitimate argument to make the playoffs this year, and there are only six spots to go around. That means that almost half of those teams are going to be left sitting at home when October comes, even if they have a great regular season. The Cardinals, for example, are on pace for 90 wins right now and would not make the playoffs if the season ended today.

Since the introduction of the third Wild Card back in 2022, it has typically taken a strong record to even achieve the third Wild Card in the National League. That first year, the Padres and Phillies both snuck into the playoffs with 89 wins and 87 wins apiece. In 2023, the Marlins and Diamondbacks needed just 84 wins to do so. But in 2024, the Braves and Mets both needed 89 wins to get in, and Arizona missed the playoffs with the same record.

The Cardinals boast the best defense in baseball. Their offense ranks top 10 in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging, doubles, and all of those same things with runners in scoring position. Their rotation is 10th in ERA, and their bullpen has climbed up to 16th in ERA after an abysmal start. But even with all of those things, their chances of making a playoff run hinge as much upon their performance as the performance of the other 10 playoff hopefuls.

Power rankings are just an objective look at the baseball landscape, but I find MLB on FOX’s most recent power ranking of all 30 MLB teams to be telling of this difficult road ahead for St. Louis. Seven different National League teams made the top 10 on this list, with the Cardinals ranking seventh among them and 10th overall.

I stated recently that, based on the Cardinals' early-season performance, they should be pushing for a playoff spot, nothing less. Even so, it's fair to wonder how the young players will hold up performance-wise over the course of 162 games. And how about guys like Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, who both seem to be outperforming their expected metrics? And the Cardinals have also remained relatively healthy to this point. Does that sustain?

All of those, and more, will be factors in the Cardinals' ability to make the playoffs in 2025. But no obstacle is likely bigger than the sheer potential of so many other teams in the National League this year.