The Cardinals should leave Matthew Liberatore in the bullpen

St. Louis Cardinals fans are still waiting to see a return on investment from the Randy Arozarena-Matthew Liberatore trade of 2020. After seeing Arozarena win the ALCS MVP that same year and Liberatore work his way up through the minors, fans immediately saw the trade as a flop on John Mozeliak's end.

Just four years later, things might be a little bit different now. Arozarena, now almost 30, came back down to earth last year. After consecutive seasons of being nearly 20% better than the average hitter, Randy finished 2024 with a 109 OPS+ and a slash line of just .219/.332/.388. He reached the 20/20 mark, but he struck out 169 times in 154 games; that makes for a lot of bad at-bats.

On the other hand, Matthew Liberatore has slowly been working his way up to the majors since 2020. He made his debut in 2022, and he has floated between being a reliever and a starting pitcher since then. It's taken Libby three years to find his footing, but he may have found his home last year out of the bullpen.

For his career, Liberatore has a 5.86 ERA as a starting pitcher in 101.1 innings and a 3.89 ERA as a reliever in 81 innings. His WHIP as a reliever is 1.185 versus 1.618 as a starter. Do you like strikeouts from your pitchers? He has a 21% K rate as a reliever vs just 17.4% as a starter. His walk rates are better in relief, opponent batting average drops significantly, and his FIP plummets dramatically. Regardless of which statistic you use, Liberatore has been significantly better as a reliever than a starter for his career.

With Andrew Kittredge off the roster (for now) and JoJo Romero slipping toward the end of the season last year, Liberatore's presence late in games may be vital next year. However, John Mozeliak is still interested in trying him out as a starter.

When speaking with Tom Ackerman last week, Mozeliak kept the door open to stretching Liberatore out. "Obviously, (Liberatore's) an exciting arm. He did a really good job for us out of the bullpen," said Mozeliak. "I can imagine he could either see himself in the rotation, so he'll definitely get stretched out in camp. I could also imagine seeing him as someone that could have an impactful role in the bullpen."

While the Cardinals may try Matthew Liberatore as a starter, his best role is in the bullpen

The Cardinals are trying to see what they have in their young players next year. As a prospect, Matthew Liberatore was a starting pitcher. When the 2020 minor-league season was lost, his development was stunted. He was then pushed too high up in the minors, and that delayed his progress even further. Now that he's found a home in relief, he needs to stay there.

Seeing a former player become a League Championship Series MVP in Randy Arozarena while your return for said player is "just a reliever" isn't idyllic, but there's a world where Matthew Liberatore ends up being more valuable than Arozarena. Libby hasn't been able to cut it as a starting pitcher up to this point; forcing him back into that role, even with ample preparation this spring, won't be best for the southpaw.

The Cardinals need to leave Matthew Liberatore in the bullpen. Giving him higher-leverage situations and using him as a multi-inning reliever is exactly what the team needs in 2025. Forcing him back into the rotation, a spot he hasn't found success up to this point isn't best for Liberatore or the team.