The Cardinals should aggressively pursue a long-term extension with JJ Wetherholt

Extending a prospect who has never even played a game at the Major League level is quite the risk, but if I were the St. Louis Cardinals, I would be exploring that right now with JJ Wetherholt.

I don't think many people would disagree with this, but in my eyes, Wetherholt is the most important player in their entire organization, and it's not all that close to me. No, it's not fair to place too lofty of expectations on him, but part of the reason I would be looking into a long-term extension with Wetherholt is that I believe there is a high enough floor that things will still go well, even if he doesn't hit his ceiling as a prospect.

Wetherholt has always been touted for his near plus-plus hit tool and incredible feel for the strike zone and swing decisions, but as he has spent more time in the Cardinals' farm system and risen up through the ranks, scouting agencies are taking notice of how great an offensive producer Wetherholt is. Baseball America now has him ranked as their fifth-best prospect in all of baseball, and MLB Pipeline has him at number six overall, and the power he has added to his game is helping cement his profile as one of the most exciting young prospects in baseball.

Baseball America just put out a great piece on different prospects who have been Statcast standouts, and they were bullish on Wetherholt's power growth, believing that his power may now even match or surpass his hit tool due to sacrificing a bit of swing and miss in his game in order to get to more power in his bat. He's not selling out for power production, but he's allowing his "super power" of top-end swing decisions to take powerful swings at pitches he can do damage with, and then laying off or not trying to do too much with other offerings. In fact, Geoff Pontes recently said on a podcast that Wetherholt may profile more like a number three hitter now, when the thought up until recently has been that Wetherholt would be the ideal lead-off hitter or number two hitter for the Cardinals.

In 26 games and 100 at-bats at the Triple-A level, Wetherholt is slashing .310/.403/.670 with nine home runs and 17 RBI to go along with an additional eight extra-base hits. On the season, he's slashing .303/.419/.529 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI, and 23 additional extra base hits in just 323 at-bats. The production is there, and talent evaluators have taken notice.

Now, that doesn't mean Wetherholt is guaranteed to succeed at the Major League level, but I would take the risk now and lock him up long-term in hopes that a key member of their core can be set in place for the next decade of Cardinals baseball.

The Cardinals should look to extend JJ Wetherholt right now

Back in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks extended the number two overall prospect in all of baseball, Corbin Carroll, to an eight-year, $111 million deal with a team option for a ninth year that could bring it up to $134 million. There were also escalators involved in the contract.

Carroll was an end-of-season call-up for the Diamondbacks in 2022, appearing in 32 games (115 plate appearances) prior to that extension at age-21. Here is what the year-to-year breakdown of that extension looked like.

2023: $1.63 million
2024: $3.63 million
2025: $5.65 million
2026: $10.63 million
2027: $12.63 million
2028: $14.63 million
2029: $28.63 million
2030: $28.63 million
2031: $28 million* (club option)

For Arizona, they locked in Carroll on big numbers long-term, but dollar figures that he would've been able to beat in arbitration and in free agency if he performed like he has so far. Carroll got his guaranteed dollars, and Arizona is now saving a fair bit of money long-term and doesn't have to worry about potentially losing Carroll until three years after he was set to hit free agency.

A very similar framework seems like a fair breakdown for Wetherholt and the Cardinals, and I would 100% be looking to lock him in if he's interested. With real uncertainty surrounding the next CBA negotiations, I would imagine someone in Wetherholt's shoes would be more inclined to take long-term security.

It's for sure a risky thing to do, as if he's a "bust", the Cardinals are forking over money in the range of $28 million per season over the last few years of his deal. Not good. But that's the risk you take signing a guy like that this early, because if you wait until you see the production at the MLB level for a while, the price only skyrockets from there, and it's much harder to get an extension done and avoid free agency.

It remains to be seen if the Cardinals will call up Wetherholt before the end of the 2025 season, but not only would I likely be calling him up next week to face the Pittsburgh Pirates, I would want to put an extension in front of his agent and see if a long-term commitment can be had as soon as possible.