The Cardinals' promise of a pitching revamp has yet to show up on the stat sheet

The St. Louis Cardinals have been a pleasant surprise to those that expected the team to compete for the bottom of the league standings. As positive as it has been, especially when looking at the early performances of Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt, there have been some red flags that point to this April success as more luck than sustainability.

Despite being over .500 and in the top half of the division, the Cardinals' success can be attributed to a few players shouldering the load on both the offensive and pitching side, while the rest of the roster plays more of a supporting cast role. Walker and Wetherholt have paced the offense by a long shot, and the best pitchers have been Riley O'Brien, Dustin May, and Michael McGreevy. O'Brien has been the closer many of us have been hoping for, and while the two starters measure up as the team's best by fWAR, even their performances have created more worry than optimism for the future. After the frustrating rotation put up a paltry 6.97 K/9 last year, good for 29th in baseball, the offseason chatter was about the shift in pitching philosophy from pitch to contact, to high-powered strikeout stuff. As of mid-April, we are waiting for that shift to show up.

Cardinals' starters are striking hitters out at a laughably low rate despite promise of new "stuff"

If the 2025 strikeout rate caused frustration from fans looking for a big strikeout, do yourself a favor and do not look at the early season stats for the rotation so far. That was your warning, but here's the reality: the rotation is the worst in the league at striking out hitters, and it is not even close. Even with the thankful jettison of Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas, starters have not taken advantage of the vacant spots with the promise of high-powered fastballs and more swing and miss. After three full turns through the rotation, the starters have combined for an absolutely pathetic 5.24 K/9. When paired with a bottom-seven HR/9 and mediocre fastball velocity, the team's early success might be short-lived, especially as the wins have been relying on the offense bailing out pitchers giving up runs early.

The fastball velocity has increased, as promised, but that has come with a sharp increase in walk rate, which in turn has caused Cardinals' starters to average a paltry 5.05 innings pitched per start. So far, the starters have turned in a 4.65 ERA, which is shockingly way better than the 6.16 xERA for the rotation, showing that they have somehow actually outperformed the true numbers on the back of the baseball card. When looking at the rotation, this is not overly surprising, as the team is working with three former relievers, a pitch-to-contact righty in Michael McGreevy, and oft-injured Dustin May looking to remain healthy for back-to-back seasons for the first time in his career. However, the new investments into the pitching labs, revamping the coaching staff, and tinkering with new pitches have yet to show their results.

While the Cardinals are hoping to receive long-term answers from their starting lineup, the rotation is going through its own fact-finding mission so far this season. May is expected to be dealt to a contender at some point this year, assuming health and performance, and the other four arms in the five-man staff come with their own questions. If those futures remain cloudy, I would hope to see the Memphis Shuttle bus gassed up and ready to make multiple trips as the Cardinals hope to find at least one long-term rotation piece somewhere within the organization.

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