The Cardinals need to stop pressing the Riley O'Brien button

Fans are witnessing unprecedented times for the St. Louis Cardinals. The bullpen isn’t locking games down! Astounding. 

Sarcastically, of course. The Cardinals have had their struggles in years past, specifically with the final two innings of a ballgame. 

Interestingly enough, the 2024 and 2025 Cardinals could lock 'em down with the best of them; both deployed well above-average arm barns, largely in part due to the great work of veteran Andrew Kittredge in 2024 and breakout phenoms Riley O’Brien and Matt Svanson down the stretch last season. 

Unfortunately, the latter duo hasn’t carried that same momentum into the new year. At first glance, O’Brien was locking down saves like prime Trevor Rosenthal. Through his first 15 games, opponents posted a dismal .460 OPS against the Cardinals’ righty. In June, that has shot up to .724.

This month, O’Brien holds a 6.00 ERA, after finishing May with an even worse mark of 6.30.

At some point, the Cardinals will have to stop pushing the O’Brien button over and over until it breaks completely. It’s been two months of the same episode, and I, for one, am inclined to start a new show. 

How to cure Riley O’Brien’s ninth-inning nonsense 

O’Brien hasn’t necessarily fallen short in the stuff department, which should calm the nerves of fans. Svanson, who was initially thought to be the team’s closer heading into the new season, has lost velocity and doesn’t look like the same pitcher. In contrast, even in his worst moments, Cardinals’ fans see flashes of the early iteration of O’Brien. So what’s got him struggling so profusely? 

1. Conviction: This is hard to quantify analytically, but judging from the eye-test, O’Brien doesn’t look like the same fiery pitcher. When he gets an out, he exhales. There isn’t a roar or a deadpan glare behind his eye, eager to cut down the next batter; there’s a whimper, like he’s anticipating failure. Last season, walks plagued the right-hander at over an 11% clip. Although that’s well improved to 8.3% in 2026, he hasn’t had the same luck overcoming ball four as of late. In five of O’Brien’s last seven games, he’s allowed at least one baserunner a free pass. In one of the two outings where he didn’t walk anyone, he surrendered two runs to the Royals, almost succumbing to yet another blown save. O’Brien’s whiff percentage and strikeout percentage are both average at best, and if that’s gonna be his M.O., groundballs and strike-throwing are a must. What’s the best way to induce a feeble swing that leads to a groundout? Get ahead in the count. 
2. First-Pitch Trouble: O’Brien’s first pitch has been dramatic in all the wrong ways this season. When hitters put the initial offering in play, they sport a ghastly OPS of .810. However, when he’s ahead, that OPS drops to .301. So, although O’Brien must avoid walks at all costs, meatballs aren’t the answer. There’s no relaxing in the ninth inning; that’s just the nature of being a closer. O’Brien needs to get ahead with quality pitches, which you could say about almost anyone. However, in particular, to his archetype, he must prevent traffic. 
3. Numbers and Fatigue: Missouri Hall of Fame sportswriter Bernie Miklasz was quick to point out St. Louis’ lack of length from their starters after a dreadfully pitched series against the Twins. Well, he can go ahead and extend his take through the Royals series. Cardinals starters combined for 8.2 innings in THREE GAMES. That’s unacceptable. The Redbird bullpen has fallen all the way to 19th in baseball in terms of ERA. That’s no doubt a byproduct of overuse. Fans have seen in years past the consequences of arm fatigue. Former big-time prospects Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks both fell victim to arm-taxation in the Cardinal bullpen. It’s a miracle St. Louis hasn’t had more injuries to compensate for. We aren’t even to the All-Star break yet, and O’Brien has over 30 innings pitched. That would be perfectly fine if he were effective; unfortunately, the right-hander has become hittable faster than you can say “quality starts please!” The reality is, the more games that fall into the hands of the Cardinal bullpen, the more likely they are to blow a save. Mathematically and physically. 

Is it time for a change in the Cardinal bullpen? 

Yes and no. St. Louis doesn’t have a pipeline of young talent waiting to debut, so this current collective remains the go-to group. 

Any call-ups or roster moves will likely wait until after the MLB trade deadline. In the meantime, what should the Cardinals do? 

First and foremost, O’Brien shouldn’t be St. Louis’ one true closer anymore. He earned that role after a roaring introduction; it’s only right that he lose it after two months of inconsistency. 

Left-hander JoJo Romero has had his troubles with the long ball this season, but over the past few years, he has been one of MLB’s most reliable lefties. Additionally, diamond in the rough George Soriano continues to turn in steady work. 

St. Louis’ bullpen should be like a puzzle box. The Cardinals don’t have the kind of arm talent you can lean on. In elite bullpens, whatever arm they throw at you has a plus fastball and one of the game’s best secondary pitches. In St. Louis, they’ve got a bit of velocity, a lack of command, and little to no experience. 

Manager Oliver Marmol hasn’t shied away from playing matchups on offense with his bench depth. Why not take the same strategy to the bullpen? Put players in positions to succeed, and watch them soar. If they can’t swim with floaties on, maybe the next guy can. It’s time to readjust the bullpen tactics in St. Louis. If the Cardinals want any chance of remaining competitive, they’ll have to be open-minded before they become mediocre. 

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