The Cardinals need to give Masyn Winn a contract extension this offseason

St. Louis Cardinals' president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been outspoken about his desire to field a competitive team in 2025 despite the organization looking to cut payroll. This is a tough balance to maintain, and few teams have been able to have both a low-to-moderate payroll while consistently winning.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, and Milwaukee Brewers are some of the most notable organizations that have been able to do this most recently. One way in which they've been able to maintain a low payroll while fielding a competitive team was through contract extensions to players in arbitration.

The Cleveland Guardians inked All-Star reliever Emmanuel Clase to a five-year deal that bought out two of his pre-arbitration years and all three of his arbitration years. The Milwaukee Brewers did the same to Jackson Chourio, their young center fielder. The Rays tried this route with Wander Franco, but that contract has soured due to off-field issues.

If the Cardinals intend on following the blueprint these teams have, they, too, must sign their young and talented players to cheaper and long-term contracts. While an extension for Ryan Helsley would be logical, an extension for another young cornerstone player may pay more dividends. That player would be Masyn Winn.

Winn finished eleventh among qualified shortstops in fWAR last year with a total of 3.6. Among rookies, Winn finished first in fWAR, third in wRC+, third in wOBA, and third in OPS. His 14 defensive runs saved were the most among shortstops. Winn was a top-10 shortstop in all of baseball last year. Winn was awarded the Fielding Bible Award at shortstop, he was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove there, and he will likely be a top-five Rookie of the Year candidate.

With the price of free agent shortstops rising quickly -- with some players not measuring up to their salaries -- it is imperative that the Cardinals ink Winn to a long-term contract.

John Mozeliak used to be well-known for giving arbitration extensions to players. Contracts like the ones given to Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina in the late 2010s and throughout the 2010s were all beneficial for the team. It's possible Mozeliak goes back to his methods then.

An extension for Masyn Winn would be quite tricky to consider, as he's just now in his second year of pre-arbitration. Buying out the remaining five years before free agency plus a few more would be difficult to project. Willy Adames is one of the best free agents on the market this offseason, and he's projected to receive a deal worth $150 million over six years. That's an average annual value of $25 million. Adames was worth 4.8 fWAR last year.

A possible contract extension for Winn could look something like an eight-year contract worth $100 million with a mutual option in the ninth year where Winn could test free agency as a 31-year-old. This would be the largest pre-arbitration given out to a player in Cardinals' history. A breakdown of Winn's contract is below.

Year 1 (pre-arb): $2 million
Year 2 (pre-arb): $5 million
Year 3 (arb): $8 million
Year 4 (arb): $10 million
Year 5 (arb): $10 million
Year 6 (free agent): $20 million
Year 7 (free agent): $20 million
Year 8 (free agent): $25 million
Year 9 (mutual option): $25 million

Why would Masyn Winn want this deal when he has to wait until year eight to make market value now? He would receive significantly more with this deal in his pre-arbitration and arbitration years than he would otherwise. For the Cardinals, this allows them to keep one of their budding stars on the roster for eight of his prime years. It will eventually be a bargain deal for the team.

Signing Masyn Winn to a long-term extension this offseason allows the Cardinals to maintain a moderate payroll while having a foundational player for years to come. It would accomplish both tasks of keeping payroll down while fielding a competitive team.