The Cardinals need to be hesitant before they deem Kyle Leahy an "ace"

One of the bright spots down the stretch for the St. Louis Cardinals has been newfound starter, Kyle Leahy. 

Despite his limited pitch count, Leahy has managed a quality 3.33 ERA this season across a career-high 133 innings pitched. 

Leahy finds success through an extensive pitch mix, limiting self-inflicted damage, and allowing his elite infield defense to support him. 

His outburst has prompted some of St. Louis’ biggest media personalities to back him. In particular, one host for Matrix Midwest is a bona fide Leahy-stan. 

Randy Karraker may be a little too high on Cardinals’ Kyle Leahy

In a recent post by Matrix Midwest, Randy Karraker pinpointed exactly why he believes in Leahy’s breakout. 

“He’s been a shutdown starter,” Karraker exclaimed. “If you didn’t notice, Leahy went from his first start in May until his last start in August–four months–without missing a start.

“20 games, 100 innings, 96 strikeouts, a 2.43 earned run average. Leahy isn’t just competitive; he’s ace-material. I mentioned yesterday that if I were the Cardinals, all of my offseason money on outside talent would be spent on pitching. To be more precise, it’d be on relief pitching.”

Karraker continued, “Get at least four relief pitchers that can be counted on for six months. That’s the play that’ll get the Cardinals back to the playoffs in 2027, or if they don’t play, in 2028. But they need people down there that Oli Marmol can rely on. People who are in the trust tree, not people he knows are probably gonna give up a home run in the latter portions of a game.” 

Karraker, one of the better baseball minds in St. Louis, has plenty of good takes. Unfortunately, this might be a misfire. 

Let’s peel back the layers of his dialogue–disperse the bullpen tangent, and dive in on why he may have gotten Leahy wrong. 

Expected numbers don’t like Kyle Leahy’s 2026 season

As previously stated, Leahy has a 3.33 ERA. This is good. Conversely, his 4.77 xERA is abysmal. 

This comes from a lack of strikeout stuff, too much hard contact, and next to no chase. 

When Leahy is in the zone, he’s very hittable. That’s the hard truth. And it’s a big reason why the Cardinals may not be able to count on him moving forward. 

Baseball’s best arms own the strike zone. The division-rival Brewers have a freakish athlete in Jacob Misiorowski, who is nearly untouchable regardless of where he throws the baseball. 

That’s what real “ace” stuff looks like. Leahy is dancing around the margin. He’s simply playing hard ot get with formulas that have deemed him lucky rather than successful. 

Time and time again, those same formulas have come back and bitten soft-contact genies in St. Louis. It’s a recipe for disaster, and historically, the Redbirds have been all too dependent on arms that can’t raise the stakes. 

Leahy is a very good pitcher. Ace, though? Not yet. 

The Cardinals have a sturdy back end of the rotation. Between Leahy, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, and Quinn Mathews, St. Louis is in good hands. 

Still, none of those names have displayed game-one playoff stuff, and even though that’s a hard pill to swallow, find solace in the fact that the best may be yet to come. 

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