"You're out of order! You're out of order! The whole lineup is out of order!" This slightly modified movie quote is what many modern-day baseball managers might bellow to their predecessors when looking at a lineup card from as recently as 10 years ago. The leadoff hitter was a light-hitting guy with wheels. The second hitter could make contact. And while former St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa was a cutting-edge mind in many facets of the sport, he too fell victim to many of the prevailing thoughts of the day regarding the strategy of how to build a batting order.
The Cardinals' top offensive weapon from 2001 to 2011 was Albert Pujols, who put together a no-doubt Hall of Fame career. His home in the batting order was third, a spot in which he had 6,093 plate appearances from 2002 to 2011. (FanGraphs does not provide batting order data prior to 2002.) But while he was obviously successful in the role, modern analyses of batting order data suggest that he was not in the optimal spot to do as much damage as possible.
A post on X illustrated a wide gap between how often the No. 3 hitter in a lineup comes up to bat with two outs and the bases empty when compared with every other spot in the lineup.
Why your best hitter should not bat 3rd.
— Kin Knows Ball (@_24kin) February 11, 2025
The 3 spot in the lineup comes up with 2 outs and no runners on far more than any spot in the lineup. This is the 2023 season for example
The 3-hole is a filler spot where you put your 5th best hitter pic.twitter.com/H16GgGclPR
With so much data now available, many managers in recent seasons have deemphasized the third spot in the order, moving the team's most adept hitter up to the second slot.
The Cardinals would have benefited had they not batted Pujols third.
If prime Pujols played today, he would likely be placed second in the batting order because those who are higher in the lineup receive more chances to hit. It's a simple concept — one that La Russa spat in the face of during the years where he decided to hit the pitcher eighth. The usual leadoff hitter likely wouldn't be the same either. During Pujols' career, the main leadoff hitters were Fernando Vina, Tony Womack, David Eckstein and Skip Schumaker, with a varying cast at leadoff in 2011.
During the 2002-2011 period that has batting order data available, the leadoff hitters on the Cardinals held a .332 on-base percentage, and those batting second hit for a combined .343 OBP. But those who hit fourth and fifth actually had a higher OBP than the first and second hitters, with the cleanup hitter amassing a .373 OBP and the fifth batter at .357. Perhaps placing one of the usual fourth or fifth hitters in the top spot would have boosted Pujols' numbers even further.
La Russa's strategy of hitting the pitcher eighth might have shown more positive results had Pujols also batted second at that time. He would have received more opportunities to hit, and he would have had more of a chance to ignite rallies with fewer than two outs at the start of a game while still having a good chance to have multiple runners aboard when he batted in later innings.
Pujols had an enormous role in carrying the Cardinals to two championships, but with big boppers such as Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman hitting second in their teams' lineups, one can only wonder if Pujols could have done even more damage had he been bumped up one spot.