The Cardinals' failures in Tampa Bay could pay off in one major aspect

Feeling lucky, St. Louis Cardinals fans? Perhaps you're not, given the Cardinals' latest throttling at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Cardinals lost two of the three games in the road series against the Rays, but that series could have lasting positive effects that extend far into the Cardinals' future — if fortune smiles upon them.

The Cardinals' last two losses have placed them neck-and-neck with the Rays for the 2026 draft lottery.

The recent news that the Cardinals will be eligible for the draft lottery in 2026 was a welcome surprise for fans. According to Tankathon, the Cardinals currently hold the 10th-highest odds to pick first overall in the 2026 draft, at 1.38%. Just above them in probability lie the Rays, at 1.69%. These aren't the final percentages; teams' overall records at the end of the season will determine those. But if the 64-67 Cardinals drop below the 63-67 Rays, the two teams will essentially switch places in their likelihood to snag that coveted top draft pick.

Still, the odds of the Cardinals securing the first pick will be woefully slim even if they do pass the Rays in the standings. The more important result of St. Louis' flip-flopping in the standings with Tampa Bay is twofold: A worse record than Tampa Bay will switch the Cardinals and the Rays in their chances of landing a place in the draft lottery, i.e., a top-six pick. If the Cardinals aren't fortunate enough to earn a spot in the lottery, they will still leapfrog the Rays in their placement for picks seven through 18 because that order is determined by teams' winning percentages at season's end, as well as their revenue-sharing status.

The Rays aren't the only team that the Cardinals could potentially vault over to receive a friendlier draft spot. From Sept. 5-7. the Cardinals will host the San Francisco Giants, who are currently one spot ahead of the Rays in draft lottery odds. If the Cardinals struggle against the Giants, they could find themselves jumping over two teams, not just one.

The Cardinals have the fifth-toughest schedule remaining in the league, according to Tankathon. The Rays sit in the middle at 14th, and the Giants have a cakewalk of games remaining, with the 28th-hardest schedule. This should place the Cardinals in a strong spot to maintain their more favorable draft lottery odds when compared with the two teams with whom they are jockeying for position.

The Cardinals were lucky enough to snatch up a seat in the previous draft lottery, and come July, they selected Liam Doyle with the fifth overall pick. Analysts have lauded the 2026 draft class as one with an excellent crop of hitters at the high school level, so the Cardinals may be tempted to grab a raw but high-upside hitter in the mold of Jordan Walker (hopefully with better major league results in his first few seasons).

Many fans have probably given up the ghost on the Cardinals in 2025, and the team's series against the Rays did no favors in making believers out of Cardinals supporters. It's borderline sacrilege in St. Louis to hope the Cardinals falter, but falling flat on their face against the Giants might be exactly what the Cardinals need to do to continue increasing their chances of landing that next elusive superstar.