The Cardinals could duplicate the Dustin May deal with Casey Mize this offseason

When the St. Louis Cardinals signed starting pitcher Dustin May last offseason to a one-year deal with an option, it was seen as a mutually beneficial contract. May could work in a lower-stress situation while he worked to prove his abilities, and the Cardinals received a talented young starting pitcher to provide innings. It worked out for both parties in the end. St. Louis could look to follow the same blueprint this offseason, and starting pitcher Casey Mize might be the best choice for this practice.

Casey Mize is a former #1 overall draft pick from the 2018 MLB Draft by the Detroit Tigers. He was once one of the most highly touted prospects in baseball, but injuries have hampered his ability to reach his full potential. He's thrown over 130 innings only three times in his first six professional seasons, and he's eclipsed 30 starts just once in a year.

Mize has a career 4.22 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and a strikeout rate just shy of 20%. He's managed to benefit from low walk rates and using his breaking balls to keep him out of trouble. From a stuff perspective, Mize won't blow people out of the water quite like Dustin May did.

Mize's first half of the year was far better than the second half in 2026. He had a 2.79 ERA with a 2.69 FIP. Opponents hitting just .209 against him in that time (77.1 innings). He also had a 25.3% K rate and a 5.9% BB rate in the first half of the season. Things really fell off the rails in the second half. The question is: if a team signs Case Mize, which version of him are they getting?

Mize's combination of untapped potential and a desire to prove himself could make him a perfect starting pitching candidate for the St. Louis Cardinals this offseason.

Casey Mize would be an interesting addition for the St. Louis Cardinals' 2027 rotation.

Let's start with the numbers. Casey Mize is projected to receive a three-year, $50 million contract via Spotrac. This feels a bit lengthy given Mize's overall production and lack of health throughout his career. ESPN predicts him to receive a one-year, $15 million contract. A one-year deal feels more reasonable, as Mize could look to post better numbers throughout the year, thus propelling him to a lengthier contract next offseason, when there will also be more financial certainty.

Steamer projects Casey Mize to finish the 2027 season with a 4.45 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.7 fWAR next year. It expects him to see a dip in both strikeout rate (19.2%) and walk rate (7%). I would venture to guess that Steamer is placing more stock in Mize's catastrophic second half than his ascendant first half.

Mize will turn 30 on May 1, making him one of the youngest free-agent starting pitchers this offseason — Adrian Morejon, Dustin May, Kris Bubic, and Hiromi Itoh, to name a few potential options, are younger than Mize. His combination of youth, prospect pedigree, and a potential desire to prove himself make him an intriguing free agent signing for the St. Louis Cardinals.

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