Tekoah Roby's superb Arizona Fall League outing should give Cardinals fans hope

Tekoah Roby last pitched on July 10th, 2025. He then underwent Tommy John Surgery two weeks later. As a result, Roby missed the entirety of the 2026 season. He has since recovered and is pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Roby's first outing in the AFL went about as well as one would hope for a guy who hasn't thrown a professional pitch in 15 months.

It has been 456 days since Tekoah Roby last pitched, so there was reason to have reserved optimism. Roby crushed any doubt in his first AFL outing against the Saguaros.

Roby started the game for the Javelinas and tossed three scoreless innings. He struck out six of the 10 batters he faced and allowed no hits or runs. His only blemish was a walk, but a missed call earlier in that at-bat would have led to a strikeout. Roby ended up losing that batter to a walk, but it shouldn't lessen the greatness of his outing.

His fastball sat around 97 MPH and topped out just shy of 99 MPH. Roby recorded strikeouts on his curveball (2), slider (2), and fastball (2). He struck out the first batter he faced on the night, and he struck out the side in his final inning of work.

St. Louis Cardinals fans should be energized by Tekoah Roby's first start after Tommy John Surgery.

When the Cardinals acquired Tekoah Roby at the 2023 trade deadline, prospect experts were excited about what he might become. He was a prospect who deviated from the traditional Cardinals mold: pitchers who could generate soft contact and take advantage of a sound defense behind them. Instead, Roby was a guy who had excellent "stuff" and struck out batters at a high rate.

Roby immediately flashed that potential, striking out 27.3% of the batters he faced in Low-A in 2024. He followed that up with a 27.5% K rate in 2025 prior to his injury.

Roby was on track to potentially see a start or two in the majors down the stretch of the 2025 season before getting hurt. Had he not hurt his elbow, he was likely a candidate to start in the 2026 rotation out of spring training. Instead, Cardinals fans had to wait to see him pitch in 2026.

It's important to note that a lot of the hitters Tekoah Roby faced on Friday aren't top prospects in baseball. Only Aidan Miller (Philadelphia Phillies) and Angeibel Gomez (Royals) are listed on MLB Pipeline's top-100 prospect list. However, seeing Roby touch velocity numbers and strike out batters like he did is a good sign in his path back to the majors.

The Cardinals have gained several other intriguing arms since Roby went down, including Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Brandon Clarke, Tegan Kuhns, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Jacob Odle, among many others. Roby is now another piece in a deep crop of pitching prospects.

Roby still has a ways to go in his return from Tommy John Surgery, but his first outing since his surgery 15 months ago is quite reassuring. The Cardinals will certainly slow-play him during spring training (assuming that's still on track following the lockout), but fans can get excited knowing that they have another top pitching prospect ramping up for 2027 and beyond.

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