Surprising shift in umpiring strategy uniquely benefits and hinders certain Cardinals

An unannounced change in the way umpires are judging the strike zone is making ripples throughout baseball. and batters and pitchers are noticing its effects. According to an article in The Athletic (subscription required), umpires are calling fewer strikes on the edges of the strike zone to account for the reduced "buffer zone," which is the area around the plate where umpires are not penalized in their grading for missing a call.

The Cardinals may be benefiting from a smaller strike zone being called

The St. Louis Cardinals have displayed a significantly improved approach at the plate in 2025, and much of that has been credited to new hitting coach Brant Brown. But the impact of pitches that were once strikes now being called balls shouldn't be overlooked either. The players who are benefiting the most from this change are those who are adept at working the count, and two Cardinals who perfectly fit that description are Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

Nootbaar has a career-high 16.5% walk rate in 2025, and although his .244 average is exactly the same as his average from 2024, his OPS is up from .758 last season to .786. He has cooled off from a sizzling start, but his elite batting eye should prevent him from falling into a deep slump.

Donovan is having a career season. His 7.7% walk rate isn't eye-popping, but his 10.6% strikeout rate is his lowest in his four big league seasons. With Donovan's stellar ability to make contact, forcing pitchers to throw the ball over the plate more often will only give him better pitches to get solid wood on.

Speaking of pitchers, the Cardinals' hurlers could be in more trouble than most around the league with the new strike zones. The rotation is mainly composed of pitchers who seek out weak contact and rely on the hitter putting the ball in play. These pitchers don't have the arsenal that can match up with guys who specialize is blowing the ball past hitters, which has become a necessity in today's game following the banning of the shift, so they have to focus on dotting the corners. But as umpires' zones tighten, these control artists will have to live more dangerously as they find more of the plate, thus suppressing their main strength.

Baseball looks to be getting closer every season to instituting the automated ball-strike system after it was tested in spring training this year. If perfectly called games are to become the norm, expect this pendulum to swing even further in the hitters' direction. With that in mind, Donovan and Nootbaar will become even more valuable. However, the Cardinals need to make sure that they focus on acquiring and developing pitchers with strikeout stuff to adapt to the changing demands of the game.