Steamer's projections for the 2027 Cardinals should lower fans' hopes

The fine people of Milwaukee are still cleaning up after the World Series parade for the Milwaukee Brewers' first-ever World Series Championship. That doesn't mean that fans can't start thinking ahead to the next season, and projection outlets like Steamer are already busy.

Steamer is a major sabermetric system that projects both team and player numbers for seasons. It is hosted and featured on FanGraphs. It's important to remember that these are just projections. It forecasts future Major League performance by analyzing a player's past statistics, age-related performance curves, and pitch-tracking data (for pitchers only).

Steamer has published their projections for the 2027 season, and the projections should have fans temper their expectations for next year, assuming there is a full season.

The St. Louis Cardinals' 2027 Steamer projections leave much to be desired.

Let's start with the good. JJ Wetherholt is projected to finish the season with 4.6 fWAR, good for 14th in all of baseball. The Cardinals haven't had a player finish in the top 15 in fWAR in a single season since 2022, when Nolan Arenado (second) and Paul Goldschmidt (fifth) both put up MVP-type seasons.

Steamer projects Wetherholt to have a .263/.354/.421 slash line with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 118 wRC+. That's a star-level season, and Steamer projects JJ to grow into stardom in his sophomore season.

The projection site also expects Masyn Winn to become the player we all think he can be, with a 2.6 fWAR season. Now, a lot of that is bolstered by superb defense, but there is hope, at least according to Steamer, that Winn can become a near-average hitter.

His .250/.318/.379 slash line with 11 home runs and 10 stolen bases is good enough for a 95 wRC+. If Winn can continue to put up Gold Glove-level defense while being an average hitter, that's a key player on any team, especially at a position as important as shortstop.

Things begin to drop off heavily from there. Ivan Herrera is projected to be the team's best hitter with a 121 wRC+ with Alec Burleson (119 wRC+), Jordan Walker (110 wRC+), Joshua Baez (106 wRC+), and Leo Bernal (102 wRC+) being the only other regulars who are above-average hitters. Only Wetherholt (21), Burleson (22), Walker (23), and Baez (21) are projected to hit more than 20 home runs in 2027.

Thomas Saggese and Nathan Church, who both figure to be in the regular lineup, are pegged to be 92 wRC+ hitters next year. Saggese, barring a free-agent signing or a trade, is the most likely Opening Day third base option. Church will slot into center field unless Victor Scott II has a fantastic spring training.

I'm prone to believe that what Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez, and Leo Bernal showed last year is just the beginning. I also think that Thomas Saggese's showing down the stretch is more his true self than the rest of his MLB career has shown.

Things don't get much better on the pitching side, though.

Steamer projects Kyle Leahy to take another step forward in his development with a team-best 2.1 fWAR total. This is bolstered by a 4.01 ERA and 4.02 FIP with a 20.3% K rate and a 1.33 WHIP. Andre Pallante (1.6 fWAR), Matthew Liberatore (1.5 fWAR), Michael McGreevy (1.5 fWAR), and Quinn Mathews (1.3 fWAR) follow suit, showing a clear rotation for the Cardinals heading into 2027.

Luis Gastelum (0.4 fWAR, 3 saves) and Riley O'Brien (0.3 fWAR, 31 saves) will lead the charge in the bullpen with Gordon Graceffo (72 appearances, 3 saves, 0.1 fWAR) helping out.

The Steamer projections for the 2027 Cardinals show obvious holes on the roster. An improvement at third base, starting pitching, and some proven bullpen arms will go a long way in boosting the floor of this team in its second "build" year.

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