St. Louis Cardinals ZiPS projections prove what we as fans believe to be true

Every year, Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs publishes a breakdown of ZiPS projections for each team in the upcoming season. This is the 22nd year of projections for the ZiPS system, and Szymborski's own system has proven quite accurate through the years.

Using a combination of setting baselines for players and estimating the heights that players could reach based on historical comps of relatively similar players, Szymborski's system is able to project a player's season statistics.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, the 2026 ZiPS projections are middling and exactly what fans could have expected.

The organization is clearly in a rebuild — er, um, build — right now. That means that projections systems will have a somewhat difficult time settling in on numbers for young and unproven players. With Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray departing via trade, the Cardinals will now rely on a multitude of arbitration and pre-arbitration players for production in 2026, and that's not a good mixture if you're someone who prefers consistency and stability.

Dan starts his breakdown with a tongue-in-cheek statement regarding the outlook for the Cardinals in 2026. "While roughly a .500-looking team has some wild card upside, St. Louis has the look of a team with an incredibly low ceiling in the short term, like on the level of that room near the start of Willy Wonka's factory tour," writes Szymborski.

He's not wrong, as the player with the highest WAR projection is shortstop Masyn Winn at 3.2. Interestingly enough, JJ Wetherholt comes in at second place in WAR projections with a total of 2.9 in his rookie year. Ivan Herrera is projected to be the club's best hitter with a 125 OPS+ that's bolstered by a .433 OPS. The club's home run leader according to ZiPS would be none other than infielder Nolan Gorman with a total of 21 long balls.

There isn't a lot of stardom according to the ZiPS projections for the Cardinals' position players. A lot players are in the 85-115 OPS+ range meaning the lineup will be stocked with a lot of slightly below-average hitters and slightly above-average hitters with no one really tanking (Jordan Walker does have a projected OPS+ of 88 for those interested) and no one really leading the charge.

On the pitching side, it's more of the same. Michael McGreevy is pegged to lead the starters in WAR with a projected total of 2.2. He'll reach that mark primarily by leading the staff in innings pitched (154 IP). There's a lot of depth in the rotation, but it's not a lot of stellar depth. "As with the starting lineup, the Cards look like they’re going to have a very deep rotation, but one that’s almost mindblowingly average," writes Szymborski. "If you believe ZiPS, St. Louis could field about three major league rotations of starting pitchers with an ERA+ somewhere in the 90s."

Some combination of McGreevy, Matthews Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts, and Hunter Dobbins will get the bulk of the starts next year. Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, and Ixan Henderson will be available should reinforcements be required. Not one of these pitchers will really outdo the other according to ZiPS. The club's best strikeout starter is projected to be Quinn Mathews with a strikeout rate of just 22%

The bullpen is a cobbling of spare parts with JoJo Romero, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo leading the charge. Riley O'Brien will receive plenty of high-leverage looks next year, too, and newcomers Jared Shuster, Scott Blewett, and Ryne Stanek will fill in some innings in the middle of the pack.

The 2026 season for the Cardinals isn't so much about the year itself but rather the years to come. There isn't much to write home about regarding the roster, yet. The hope is that young players like Masyn Winn, Matthew Liberatore, and Ivan Herrera can take their games to another level next year. While ZiPS isn't overly optimistic regarding the club's 2026 season, it does see hope down the road for this wayward squad.