St. Louis Cardinals' Jordan Walker is a Statcast darling

Heading into his third season with the big league club, Jordan Walker should receive all the at-bats needed to show his value to the St. Louis Cardinals. As the team heads into 2025 with the young players in mind, Walker may be able to display his true skills at the plate that made him the organization's top prospect before his 2023 debut. To this point, he has underachieved in regards to his lofty expectations, but advanced data tracking shows that he could be ready for a breakout season.

Jordan Walker's debut

After hearing that Jordan Walker was considered an untouchable prospect from the time he was drafted, his overall numbers to this point in his big league career have been underwhelming. Walker was the Cardinals first-round pick in the 2020 draft, signing him away from his Duke University commitment with a $2.9 million signing bonus.

At the time, it was almost unanimous that Walker was one of the top power bats in recent drafts, coming out of high school as a 6'5, 240-pound third baseman and fresh off the state of Georgia's Gatorade State Player of the Year honor. After the signing, the Cardinals sent Walker to Low-A Palm Beach where he made his debut in style, hammering the first professional pitch he saw for a home run.

At the time of his selection, the Cardinals did not have a third baseman of the future in their minor leagues. At the start of the 2021 season, the Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado but the plan was still for Walker to spend his entire first professional season at the hot corner. As scouts feared coming out of high school, Walker was unable to hold his own at third as he totaled 22 errors and an .876 fielding percentage in his first 76 games.

The tough defensive performance aside, Walker showed his hitting potential with an outstanding .317/.388/.548 slash line with 14 homers, 25 doubles, and four triples as a 19-year-old in A-ball. Initial scouting reports questioned Walker's ability to make contact, citing his huge frame, long swing, and inability to lay off breaking balls but the first-year pro showed a quality 24% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. Even more promising was his ability to steal bases as the youngster tallied 14 stolen bases in 16 attempts.

After Arenado's successful Cardinal debut and Walker's struggles at third, the big league club announced that he would split time between third and the outfield with the idea of him playing outfield full time in the majors. The results, while improved, did show some continued struggles on the defensive side of the ball but Walker's third base arm proved to be a weapon in the outfield as he tallied 10 outfield assists for the year. On another positive note, his offense did not feel the effects of the position switch with another strong .898 OPS and 53 extra-base hits. Walker's plate discipline stayed consistent with the previous year's numbers showing that he may have been able to put scouting concerns in the rearview.

These two quality debut seasons put Walker as the Cardinal's #1 prospect in the organization and the league's #4 prospect in the 2023 season. With the Cardinals facing outfield concerns, Walker was given every chance to win the starting job in Spring Training. The 21-year-old showed he could handle higher-level pitching during the exhibition season with a .791 OPS and three home runs. Walker's strikeout rate did increase while his walk rate fell to 3% in the small sample size, but the Cardinals attributed those changes to facing new pitchers and Walker showing increased aggressiveness in hopes of winning a spot. A concern that started to be covered near the end of Spring Training was his increased ground ball rate (57%) which the team saw as a limitation to his power and a change in his approach to make consistent contact. Despite that issue, Walker still cracked the Opening Day roster as the club's starting right fielder.

While making his major league debut as a 21-year-old, Walker started the season hot with a record 12-game hitting streak to start his big league career. When his streak ended, the outfielder was hitting .319 with two home runs and two doubles to go along with an 11:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After the streak, Walker started to struggle, hitting under .200 with only one double and another nine strikeouts and two walks. His struggles coincided with the team's offensive dip, so the team sent him down to AAA-Memphis to hopefully unleash more power, plate discipline, and increased outfield opportunity in a lower-stress environment.

Walker spent the entire month of May with the AAA Redbirds and showed a nice improvement with nine extra-base hits and a much more palatable 26:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with his .761 OPS. While not in line with his lower-level minors numbers, an injury to Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson created a longer-term opening with the big club for Walker at the beginning of June.

The time in the minors seemed to be fruitful for the slugger as Walker put up a .976 OPS with four homers with a great 18% strikeout and 12% walk rate, good for a 169 OPS+. The ground ball issue remained with Walker as he put the ball on the ground over 57% of the time, but his hard hit percentage was above average at 48%. These trends caught up with Walker in the heart of the season, however, as his July saw his numbers plummet to a monthly low .610 OPS and a severely increased strikeout rate (23.7%) with a decreased walk rate (4.1%) brought Walker's major league stat line to a league average .268/.331/.426.

After the All-Star break, Walker was able to put up similar numbers as his second half saw him match his first-half home run total (8) but saw a slight decrease in average and contact percentage. At the end of the season, despite going up and down with Memphis and working through a position change, Walker finished with a .276/.342/.445 and 16 homers slash line for a club that underperformed across the board. Heading into 2024, the Cardinals were hoping for Walker to take the next step in his development after a full year getting comfortable in the outfield and in the bigs.

Walker's sophomore season

Even with Walker's knack for grounders and chasing breaking balls out of the zone, the Cardinals set high expectations for the former top prospect and again expected him to start the season as an everyday outfielder. During 2024 Spring Training, Walker continued to hold his own while displaying increased plate discipline and desire to run on the bases. His strong spring ended with an outfield collision with presumed starter Dylan Carlson, who then missed extended time with injury as a result. While unfortunate for the Cardinals and Carlson, this again opened up the everyday job for Walker to seize the position and make good on his preseason expectations.

Unfortunately, early season struggles found Walker again, this time with his inability to make contact or lay off breaking balls out of the zone. During April, Walker hit a paltry .167 with 15 strikeouts before again being sent down to Memphis with the major league club needing to right the offensive ship quickly after a miserable 2023 season. This time, however, the Cardinals announced that they planned to keep the young star in the minors so he could receive consistent at-bats and defensive chances. His time in AAA was just fine by his standards, with a .723 OPS to go along with his 17% strikeout rate. Despite his strong splits against left-handed pitchers, the Cardinals again announced Walker's time in the majors would have to come with everyday playing time.

In a strange situation, however, the Cardinals backtracked their statement with a mid-August call-up with the expectation that Walker would only fill a platoon role during that time. Once again, Walker struggled with the minimal playing time as he only tallied 20 plate appearances to the tune of a .105 average before being sent down to Memphis again. This stay was even shorter-lived as the slugger made his way back to the Cardinals in September, where he stayed for the remainder of the year. For the season, the constant shuffling of Walker only netted him 164 big league at-bats where he struggled to a .201/.253/.366 slash line with five homers and bad 28% strikeout and 5% walk rates.

Reasons for optimism

After two mediocre and disappointing seasons from Walker, it's fair to see why some fans may think he's a bust. However, advanced metrics along with his prospect pedigree, intangibles, and minor league performance should at least put a "wait" grade on the former #4 MLB prospect.

First off, size is something that cannot be taught. Walker stands at a hulking 6'5 and has long been seen as a bat-first power prospect with 40 home run potential. Through his short minor league career, Walker has put together the stats that back up his potential. While it is not against the top talent, Walker is consistently one of the youngest players in the league. Through his 314 games (let's call it two seasons) in the minors, the now-outfielder has an .855 OPS with 46 homers, 85 doubles and has flashed speed with 10 triples and 44 stolen bases. Of course, it is easy to get excited about minor league numbers, but without the major league track record, these numbers do not hold as much weight.

The advanced numbers, along with his prospect pedigree and counting stats paint a picture that Cardinals fans and the front office should be excited for a full year of Walker. If 2025 is truly about the prospects, then Walker should expect to receive 600 plate appearances while continuing to get comfortable in the outfield. Walker receiving everyday playing time should not be seen as the team phoning it in on being competitive in 2025 as the team still expects to have Walker be a mainstay for the organization for the long haul.

Statcast, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs all paint Walker as a player who still has potential, but may need to make adjustments to his approach in order to reach his full value. Even though Walker did not receive enough major league playing time last season to qualify, Baseball Savant puts his bat speed, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and sprint speed all above league average. In each of his first two seasons in the major leagues, his max exit velocity of over 114mph was better than the top 10% of hitters in the league. Another positive is that, while his defense is still below average, he did improve his outs above average from -14 to -4 in 2025, showing that there's reason to believe he can grow into an average defender with a top arm in the outfield. His success rate on the defensive side also went up to an estimated 89%.

Overall, Walker's big league career to this point has been a disappointment but it is way too early to call him a bust. FanGraphs current 2025 projections for Walker expect an uptick in numbers, as Steamer projects a .735 OPS which would be good for second best on the 2024 Cardinals and a 106 OPS+. He will start the 2025 season at 23 years old, younger than Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Victor Scott II. To this point, Walker does not have anything left to prove in the minors and should continue to improve on his numbers with another full-time shot at the starting outfield spot.